Six global lessons from the Gaza ceasefire
The ceasefire in Gaza explains better than any textbook how the international system works: the strong act with impunity, organized citizens can upset the balance, allies are suspicious – and sometimes overconfident – everything is negotiable and – often disguised as reasons of state – the decisions of the protagonists respond to personal interests and.
The first lesson This is the most uncomfortable: differential impunity. Some states and leaders feel strong enough or protected enough to ignore international rules and institutions. This is the case with Israel, which has systematically disregarded the United Nations, knowing it has the diplomatic and military backing of the United States. The message is clear and dangerous: the rules do not apply equally to everyone.
The second lesson The United States continues to hold a privileged position within the international system. Despite the rise of other powers like China, its influence is large enough to move the entire world around it. One of Trump's priorities is to preserve that position, and with the ceasefire, he believes he has demonstrated that he is the one in charge here.
The third lesson It may seem contradictory: social pressure and transnational movements are effective. Without them, many governments would not would have recognized the state of PalestineAnd without threats of boycott or exclusion, political impunity would have been accompanied by social impunity. Even in a world dominated by the powerful, citizen pressure can change behavior.
The fourth lesson It combines two ideas: multiple alliances and the exchange of favors. Israel relied so heavily on its alliance with the United States that it failed to calculate the costs of attacking another Washington ally, Qatar. The United States demanded an apology from Netanyahu and used this opportunity to pressure him into accepting concessions. Meanwhile, Turkey reappeared as a mediator, pressuring Hamas to disarm, with the aim of consolidating the thaw with Washington and unblocking arms purchases.
The fifth lesson Qualifies these dynamics: Are we sure we're talking about state interests when we refer to the United States, Israel, Qatar, and Turkey? Often, the driving forces are individual, material, or political interests—those of decision-makers, their families and collaborators, or those who influence politics. These are calculations that don't benefit the state, but rather the careers or bank accounts of people with names and surnames. The Gaza reconstruction plans are a good example of this..
The sixth and final lesson It's narcissism. Leaders want to be remembered, they seek praise, and they want to show that they are more powerful, intelligent, or feared than their colleagues. Trump takes the cake. Is it a coincidence that the ceasefire was reached just hours before the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded? Probably not, and under certain circumstances, leaders' obsessions can tip the balance.
The ceasefire in Gaza therefore reveals how international relations work today: a world of competition between powers where the privileged rush to preserve their position, marked by personal calculations and even emotional impulses, where the rules are not for everyone and citizen mobilization is essential to try to preserve them.