Russia and Ukraine intensify attacks against energy before resuming peace talks

MoscowVladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy have opted to escalate the campaign against energy infrastructure amidst Donald Trump's mediation efforts. On the eve of the resumption of peace talks between Moscow, Kyiv, and Washington in Abu Dhabi, which have been stalled for nine months, the Ukrainian army struck Russia's second-largest refinery and forced gas stations to ration fuel, while the Kremlin's army continued its bombings against Ukraine's electrical facilities, leaving nearly 850,000 people without power.

In the last eleven days, Ukrainian drones have hit ten oil complexes. The latest, early this morning, in Kirishi, in the Leningrad region, where the remains of the downed devices also killed a woman. The refinery that caught fire supplies approximately half of the gasoline consumed by Saint Petersburg, and in fact, Kyiv's attacks are focusing on the facilities that supply Russia's major cities. The company most affected is Rosneft, the largest in the country, and this Monday it imposed a 30-liter fuel limit on drivers filling their tanks at urban service stations, and 50 liters for those doing so at highway stations.

Supply problems

These supply problems cast doubt on whether Putin can meet the diesel volumes promised to Trump just a month ago, in the so-called diesel agreement. The Russian government had offered to bring at least 1.8 million tons of diesel to the global market and 3 million each month if the situation allowed. Furthermore, for the moment, out of the three ships loaded with fuel that left Russia, none of them have docked at United States ports because buyers fear the legal consequences of importing Russian fuel.

Since October 30, Zelensky has decided to stop respecting the White House's request not to bomb Russian refineries. The reason is the Kremlin's refusal to halt the campaign against Ukrainian electrical stations in exchange. In the last week, Moscow has launched more than 130 attacks aimed at Ukraine's energy sector, and this Monday alone there have been power outages in half of the country's regions. Of the 38 power plants under Kyiv's control, at least 14 are out of service and 8 more are damaged.

Europe demands a seat at the table

Putin's calculation is that a Zelensky without enough anti-aircraft defenses and with an electrical system battered after five winters will negotiate the end of the conflict from a position of weakness. Russia returns to the negotiating table with the firm conviction that it is in a favorable position, even though the front has barely moved since the last round of talks in February. The Kremlin's insistence that the withdrawal of the Ukrainian army from the Donbas must precede any substantive discussion and Kyiv's refusal to concede beyond a freezing of the front line do not bode well for miraculous progress in the Emirates.

On this occasion, however, Russia has managed to introduce onto the agenda a new point it has long been demanding: the debate on the European security architecture. What Putin demands is that the peace agreement in Ukraine be framed within a broader pact that addresses the rebalancing of forces on the continent and thanks to which Moscow does not feel threatened by the European Union. In practice, this translates into distancing NATO from Eastern Europe, preventing Ukraine from joining the Alliance, and having veto power over any community security guarantee for Kyiv.

The United States has accepted the premise of this dual approach, although Europe does not believe that European security needs to be reformulated, but rather that the pre-war balance should be restored, nor that peace talks about Ukraine are the appropriate venue to discuss it. Furthermore, the paradox is that European countries do not have a seat at the table. The Kremlin has made it clear that this is a trilateral negotiation and that there is no room for community representatives. Even so, a support group for Ukraine, made up of advisors and high-ranking officials from European institutions, as well as France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, will be present in Abu Dhabi.