Putin suffers to recruit soldiers and Zelensky sends robots to fight

MoscowVladimir Putin is having more and more trouble maintaining the bloody virtuous cycle that is allowing him to advance drop by drop in Ukraine. Russian army recruitment figures have fallen in the first three months of the year and do not compensate for the pace of casualties caused by Ukrainian drones amid the Kremlin's offensive. The Russian president is trying to avoid a new mobilization that, according to experts, would be inefficient and insufficient to conquer all of Donbas. Meanwhile, Volodymyr Zelensky is trying to combat the shortage of soldiers by introducing robots onto the battlefield, the technological innovation that both sides crave to tip the scales of the war.

faced with the population's resistance to going to fightKyiv claims that the number of Russian military casualties is a record, but its own records show that a year ago they were 25% higher. Zelensky intends to show Trump that Putin's calculations are not working out. And, even though Ukraine may be exaggerating Russian casualties, the difficulties in replenishing the front line with men are a reality for the Kremlin. The bonuses for enlisting in the army offered by governors have indeed reached a historic high, as noted by analyst Jan Kluge, who monitors regional spending to attract soldiers. This confirms that, faced with the population's resistance to going to fight, local governments have no choice but to increase the promised salaries, putting the budget at risk.

On the other hand, any prognosis is subject to possible technological revolutions. Kyiv is putting all its eggs in the basket of war robotization."The war is being fought over 30 kilometers," he adds, accepting the American argument that if Russian troops manage to occupy the remaining territory of Donetsk, the conflict will end. "150,000 or 200,000 more Russian soldiers will be needed and perhaps that will be the end," he points out. But it is still a very distant scenario and most military experts do not believe it can be glimpsed before 2028.

The next technological revolution

On the other hand, any forecast remains subject to possible technological revolutions. Kyiv is putting all its eggs in the basket of war robotization because it has an endemic recruitment problem. And in recent days, the strategy seems to be paying off. In addition to the superiority of Ukrainian drones, which are overwhelming the Russian front line and rear and have slowed down their spring offensive, we must now add the latest innovation presented by Zelensky: the first system of robots and drones that has been capable of conquering an enemy position without the need for infantry and, therefore, without causing casualties.

Although their use is not yet widespread, this experience proves that replacing people with robots is not a theoretical horizon, but a reality to be explored. According to specialists, whoever finds a way to further dehumanize the battlefield will have options to turn the tide of the conflict or, at least, to gain a crucial advantage. "The idea of the military is that men should be kept as far away from the front line as possible," explains another Russian war analyst to ARA who prefers to remain anonymous. "The front has become a zone of total extermination and at least the first approach should be made by machines," he concludes.

In a war of attrition and positions like the one in Ukraine, where the correlation between deaths and occupied kilometers is so disproportionate, the promise of a fight without loss of life is revealed to be tempting for both sides. Zelensky has scored the first point and taken the lead, but Putin has already shown with the Shahed drones that, if Russia manages to hit the right note, its production capabilities are very difficult to match.