Putin steps on the gas in Ukraine and makes fun of Trump

MoscowVladimir Putin is convinced he can win the war in Ukraine and will not stop fighting until he sees the best cards to sit down and negotiate peace. The Russian president is exploiting Donald Trump's doubts and increasing airstrikes, while paving the way for a new offensive this summer in the Donbas. Meanwhile, the Kremlin's diplomatic machinery is seeking to set the pace for talks that have become an intimidating monologue.

In Kiev, there is fear that the meeting between Russian and Ukrainian representatives will be a proposal for Monday in Istanbul is yet another chapter in Moscow's delaying strategy, which is trying to calm the United States' desire for peace, while burying any hope of an agreement under its invariable and unacceptable conditions. The memorandum that Putin's envoys must present is expected to contain the same demands as always for a ceasefire: Ukraine's non-entry into NATO, the lifting of sanctions, and the protection of the Russian-speaking population.

In the name of saving the Russian-speakers of eastern Ukraine—the main victims of the Russian invasion—the Kremlin has once again made it clear in numerous statements in recent weeks that it will not rest until it has fully dominated the four regions that annexed in September 2022 until it led to the dismissal of Volodymyr Zelensky.

Summer offensive

Ukrainian intelligence expects a Russian offensive in Donetsk this summer, where Putin's troops have been trying to conquer the strategic towns of Pokrovsk and KostiantínivkaAt the same time, Moscow is threatening the northern Ukrainian regions of Sumi and Kharkiv, where it intends to create a security zone to prevent further incursions into the territories. Russian border crossings of Kursk and Belgorod, while preventing Kiev's forces from concentrating their efforts in the Donbas.

The current situation allows the Kremlin to be cautiously optimistic. Russia relies on numerical superiority as a key element. Despite the high number of casualties in the assault operations, the number of new volunteers in the Russian ranks, although it may be exaggerated (60,000 per month, according to Putin), is still considerably higher than in the Ukrainian ranks (about 25,000).

Moscow also seeks to capitalize on the permanent threat to the sky. Russia's increased drone production capacity and new tactics to make them harder to shoot down are straining Ukraine's already weak and under-munitioned air defenses. Russian drones and missiles will cause increasing civilian casualties if Ukraine doesn't receive more defensive artillery.

The record-breaking bombings of recent days have spurred a new call to action from Trump, who has threatened Russia with "very bad things" if it does not stop "playing with fire". However, the Kremlin has not only not been intimidated, but has responded with a mixture of mockery and condescension to the ultimatum from the American president.

The Kremlin ridicules the Republican tycoon

Several members of Putin's entourage have attributed Trump's reaction to "emotional overload" resulting from nerves surrounding the negotiation process, and have accused him of being "insufficiently informed" about the alleged "massive terrorist attacks" in Ukraine. Former President Dmitry Medvedev, from the Kremlin's hardline wing, even went so far as to gallivant about a Third World War, while state television's chief propagandist, Vladimir Solovyov, addressed the US leader, saying, "Look at the graves of those who threatened Russia." Even the official profile of the propaganda channel RT has dared to say: "Trump's message leaves little room for misinterpretation... until he publishes otherwise tomorrow morning."

The US president's erratic passivity is fuel for Putin, who has grown to his size. Trump doesn't dare to tighten sanctions on Russia, despite pressure from Zelensky and European leaders, arguing that he is "on the verge" of wresting a deal from them and doesn't want to "ruin it" by angering them. "I'll tell you in two weeks if Putin is pulling my leg or not. If he is, we'll respond differently," Trump warned Wednesday. But he said the same thing on April 27 and returned to it on May 19, and since then, the Russian president has shown no sign of wanting to stop the fighting.

Zelensky has reason to despair when he sees the Kremlin using peace talks as a diversion, the bombing intensifying, and the front barely holding. And, meanwhile, Trump's peculiar equidistance consists in not rearming Ukraine openly or pressuring Russia to lay down its weapons, the only two scenarios that could worry Putin.

On the other hand, if the American president ends up abandoning mediation and support in Ukraine, or if he convinces himself that Kiev has the odds against him and drags it into negotiating a virtual capitulation, Putin can only win. All that remains is to make Trump believe that, on top of that, it was Zelensky's fault, and that Russia and the United States can return to the business as usual because, after all, neither of them can do more.