Putin's manual: this is how he has managed for Trump to serve the interests of Russia

MoscowThe two worst moments in the relationship between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy have had a common denominator: they have arrived preceded by a telephone conversation between the United States president and Vladimir Putin, in which the Kremlin leader promised him major joint business deals. It happened in February 2025, before the public brawl between the American leader and the Ukrainian leader in the Oval Office of the White House, and it has happened again now, following the agreement for Moscow to sell diesel with Washington's permission, which caught Kyiv off guard. The Russian president has known at all times how to offer Trump what he desired, persuade him with his reasons, draw him to his positions, and pit him against Zelenskyy.

According to Roman Anin, one of Russia's best investigative journalists, who has spent fifteen years investigating the secret services and Russian organized crime, Putin is applying to Trump the manual of gangsters and the silovikis –the agents of the security services– to get him to do what best suits the Kremlin. According to this manual, Trump is a bariga, a word that in Russian criminal slang describes a greedy and unscrupulous businessman who puts his own profit above all principles and norms. And the Russian president's goal is to turn him into a lokh, an outsider who ignores the codes of this underworld and who is deceived so that he ends up serving the interests of the clan.

Just before the discussion at the White House, Putin had proposed to Trump that they jointly exploit the Russian rare earths in the occupied Ukrainian territories. This and other economic cooperation opportunities appeared as a very profitable horizon for the United States, which was also about to sign an agreement to extract rare minerals from Ukraine. The American president interpreted that Russian predisposition as a sign of the Kremlin's willingness to reach a peace agreement. Thus, he imagined an easy resolution to the conflict, a first success for his mandate, and the end of the million-dollar spending on weaponry for Ukraine. Zelenskyy, however, warned Trump and the vice president, J.D. Vance, that Putin had violated previous pacts and that he would have no intention of stopping the fighting, a warning that was received as a Ukrainian refusal to explore the diplomatic path.

With the diesel agreement, the Kremlin leader has convinced Trump that the situation is the same again: a recalcitrant Zelensky, who is not willing to stop bombing refineries and who, therefore, becomes an obstacle to the domestic policy of the United States. Putin, on the other hand, presents himself as a constructive world leader, open to dialogue, and with whom deals can be closed. In fact, according to various American media, White House envoys foresee that this oil pact will be a first step for the Russian president to return to the negotiating table. For the moment, Moscow has already made it known that Zelensky's insistence on escalating the bombings prevents the resumption of talks.

Meanwhile, just like in the spring of 2025, Putin rejects any proposal for a truce and manages to ensure that Trump is not only not angry, but also able to proclaim that a ceasefire on energy infrastructure actually exists, despite the evidence to the contrary. If at that time Russia formally accepted the various truces that were discussed only to later bury them under impossible conditions, now the Russian diplomats do not even look for alibis to mask the refusal. “I don't think Zelensky has earned a ceasefire, I don't think we will fall for his guarantees and promises again,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov limited himself to saying on Monday.

Trump and Putin want elections in Ukraine

It is also not a coincidence that, both now and in February of last year, Trump has lashed out at Zelensky, accusing him of perpetuating himself in power without going to the polls. Back then, he described him as a “dictator without elections,” and now he has gone further, stating that “it is time for Ukraine to have a new president” and suggesting that it should be someone capable of reaching an agreement. This approach has immediately received the applause of the Kremlin because it is what Putin has been advocating for years. Furthermore, one of the main objectives of the invasion that Russia launched in 2022 was and continues to be a regime change in Kyiv, which includes the removal of Zelensky.

Putin does not expect Trump to facilitate peace on his terms because he believes that this does not depend on him. He does not trust him, and even less so now that he sees it as possible that he might lose the midterm elections and that any document signed by him could end up being meaningless. What Moscow has always intended is to exploit Trump's haste to wash his hands of the conflict, get him to abandon Kyiv for good, and pave the way for him to win the war. One of the consequences of the clash in the Oval Office was the American threat to stop sharing intelligence with the Ukrainian army if it did not agree to negotiate peace. Also now history is repeating itself, with the Pentagon pressuring Zelensky with this tool essential for the defense of Ukrainian cities and for attacks against the interior of Russia.