Putin links Russia's economic future to China's power

BarcelonaThe signing of the memorandum of understanding between China and Russia on the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, The meeting, which took place this Tuesday in Beijing, has established a new strategic shift in relations between the two countries, which, in practice, represents a deepening of ties that had already been strengthened by Western sanctions on Moscow due to the war in Ukraine.

The long-negotiated project, which has been paralyzed for years by price disputes, is expected to connect Siberian fields with the Chinese market via Mongolia and will allow the transportation of up to 50 billion cubic meters of gas annually for the next three decades. Power of Siberia 2 is not just a gas pipeline: it is an umbilical cord that links Moscow's economic future to Beijing and, in turn, underscores the ever-deepening rift with the West.

For Moscow, this is a survival gamble. After the invasion of Ukraine and the break with Europe, Russia has seen its main energy market disappear. With Power of Siberia 2 and the expansion of existing connections—which will add up to nearly 56 billion cubic meters per year—Putin is seeking to replace part of the 230 billion cubic meters he previously sent to the European continent. Now, that vital stream of income is in the hands of China. In practice, then, Putin is placing his future, and the future of his country, in the hands of the Asian giant.

Beijing, for its part, has acquired a compliant energy partner, something India has also done. After lengthy talks, Xi Jinping has imposed his conditions: the commercial details have not yet been made public, but the format of the memorandum indicates that it is China that sets the pace, although Moscow has insisted that the pact obliges China to move forward with the project. The message is clear: the Asian giant is supplied with cheap and reliable energy while consolidating its dependence on Russia. Furthermore, China continues to progressively increase its production of renewable energy, so as not to depend solely on Moscow.

In any case, the symbolic value is as relevant as the economic one. Putin praised relations with Xi, describing them as "strategic" and at an "unprecedented" level. The Chinese leader, at the same time, affirmed that bilateral relations have withstood "international changes" and that it is necessary to work together for "a more just and reasonable system of global governance." Both took the opportunity to condemn, without directly naming him, the "bullying" of the West and to present themselves as an alternative to the Euro-Atlantic model.

The context reinforces this interpretation. The agreement was announced on the eve of a major military parade in Beijing to commemorate the victory over Japan in 1945. Kim Jong-un will also attend the grand celebration. All of this is a new gesture of defiance in Washington and European capitals, which caps off the at Xi's meeting with Putin and Narendra Modi, in the context of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting, which took place on Sunday and Monday.