Putin doesn't believe Trump's tariff threat

MoscowWhen he was elected president, Donald Trump promised a peace agreement in Ukraine within 24 hours. Then he set a deadline of the first 100 days of his term. When he failed, he gave Vladimir Putin a two-week deadline three times to stop the fighting. And now, finally, he's throwing the ball at him. a new ultimatum, this time of fifty days, if you don't want it to impose 100% tariffs on countries that trade with Russia.

According to the US portalAxiosOn Monday, in a July 3 telephone conversation, the Russian president informed the US leader of his intention to increase the offensive in Ukraine over the next two months with the goal of conquering all of the annexed regions. Trump took eleven days to respond, which, added to the fifty days before imposing tariffs, is almost the sixty days Putin claims he needs.

Stock market rebound

A good indicator that Moscow doesn't believe the US president's threats is that, in the minutes following his statement, the stock market rebounded by almost three points. "Even frightened investors understood everything correctly," wrote Aleksander Yuashev, a journalist close to the Kremlin. The slight unease surrounding Trump's announcement vanished. Coincident or not, the night from Sunday to Monday was the first in more than two months in which the Russian military did not carry out a single airstrike. However, at last week's rate, in sixty days it could launch 25,000 missiles and drones against Ukrainian cities. In fact, there is a consensus among the political class and commentators within the Russian government that Trump's challenge will not alter Putin's roadmap in the slightest.

The deputy chairman of the Russian Senate, Konstantin Kosachev, was the first to express the sentiments of politicians close to Putin. "What matters is that it doesn't affect our mood in any way," he asserted. "In fifty days, a lot can change on the battlefield and in the mood of those in power in the United States and NATO." Far from counterattacking, the Kremlin is opting for restraint. Its spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, affirms that the US president's statements are "very serious" and "require time to analyze," and that if the Russian president "deems it necessary," he will respond.

The decision to send more weapons through the Atlantic Alliance has not surprised Moscow either, which has always assumed Washington's support for Kiev. However, Peskov insists that these deliveries are perceived in Ukraine as "a signal to continue the war, not for peace."

The reality, moreover, is that, despite the change in discourse, Trump continues to send ambivalent messages that confirm his hesitation when it comes to putting the squeeze on his counterpart. "How far would you be willing to go if Putin keeps sending more bombs in the coming days?" a journalist asked the US president. "Don't ask me a question like that," he replied angrily. From the perspective of international politics expert Alexei Naumov, for Trump "this is still Biden's war: both Moscow and Washington are trying to establish bilateral cooperation."

However, some analysts believe that this ultimatum marks a turning point in the White House's strategy with Russia. "Most likely, we can say that the first stage of relations with the United States under Trump, which will have lasted six months, is over," Fyodor Lukyanyov writes in the newspaperKommersante. Other experts are beginning to raise their voices regarding Trump. Nikolai Silayev, for example, writes in RBC: "Trump keeps saying it's Biden's war, but the more time passes, the more it becomes his war."

In fact, emphasizing this aspect, this Tuesday the Financial Times reports that Donald Trump asked Volodymyr Zelensky during a July 4 phone call whether he could attack Moscow or St. Petersburg if they had long-range weapons. The Ukrainian leader replied affirmatively, provided the US provided them. The newspaper reports that the two presidents discussed a potential list of weapons that the US would transfer to NATO, which European allies would then hand over to Kiev to avoid direct congressional approval. Ukraine has requested precision-guided, long-range Tomahawk missiles, but the Trump administration has reservations about Zelensky's willingness to restrict the use of these weapons.

A missed opportunity?

Only among Russian analysts in exile is the possibility raised that it was Putin who squandered an opportunity for a deal by rejecting the peace plan of Trump's emissary, Steve Witkoff. Tatiana Stanovaia, while admitting that the window for a pact never actually existed, does detect among the elites "a growing sense of disillusionment with the protracted and increasingly costly nature of the war." These politicians and businesspeople suspect that it was the Russian leader's "perseverance and irrationality" that prevented a compromise that included, among other things, the recognition of Crimea, a freezing of borders along the current front lines, and Ukraine's acceptance of NATO membership.

Be that as it may, Putin, for the moment, does not seem to take the hint and remains silent. He smiles at Trump's umpteenth delayed threat, maintains his willingness to rebuild relations with the United States, and, at the same time, insists on confrontation with Ukraine and European countries. The Russian president was preparing for a new diplomatic winter and has been granted a summer to continue expanding the military doctrine he himself formulated a few weeks ago: "Wherever a Russian soldier steps, it's our territory."