Neither a ceasefire nor a reduction in hostilities in Ukraine. This seems to be what Vladimir Putin is thinking as the end of the war approaches. face to face with Donald TrumpAnd that also seems to be what we're smelling—and he's been saying it for days—from Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk: "I fear we're heading towards a freezing of the conflict." Alaska is thus emerging as the stage for the umpteenth Putin-Trump game of vagueness and ambiguity. The result would be more uncertainty, leading us to where we've perhaps never really moved: what Trump and Putin want is to agree on the future of Ukraine and Europe. Putin hasn't renounced the territorial spoils—Crimea and a good part of Donbas—a success disguised as a victory in the eyes of Russian society, and which would leave Ukraine with almost unconditional surrender: obligatory neutrality—always threatened with satellization—and no question of joining NATO.
And while he's heading to Alaska: what does Trump think is most important for the US? Obtaining guarantees for Ukraine, and for Europe, in a design for an end to the war? Or give in to his egotistical concerns, even if the price is also giving in to Putin's demands? Is Trump capable of turning his back on Ukraine and Europe once he has secured the money he thought he could steal? Rare earths in Ukraine—a total plunder—15% tariffs in Europe, plus 5% of GDP to maintain NATO. By the way: what good is NATO if the decisive commander, the US, turns its back on its European allies?
Trump can defend all of this in the name of the geopolitical balance he needs with Putin, which would legitimize the humiliating scandal Zelensky had to endure in the White House, which was nothing more than a continuation of the contempt for Europe announced in the winter of 2024: "I will not protect them," he exclaims, "with them." A threatening refrain connected with the whole range of rhetorical juggling: now I suspend the shipment of weapons to Ukraine; now we send them again; now I boo Zelensky; now I hear it in the Vatican a few meters from the body of Pope Francis. And from time to time it's Putin's turn: enough of the bombs! And after a few hours: but look what he has to do! And no sanctions in Russia, only some threat of procedure like the last one: "I give you fifty days: if you don't stop this war, I'll put 100% tariffs on you.". All leading up to Friday's Alaska face-to-face, which leaves both Ukraine and Europe out of the negotiations. This must be remembered once again.
Putin is already enjoying this Trumpian juggling act, because the more scenes he stages, the clearer it will become inside and outside the Kremlin that the US is in decline. And that Trump's supposed charisma is increasingly a caricature. And what does Europe intend to do in the meantime?And what about the €650 billion in the fine print of the tariff agreement?, and that Trump wants to receive "as a gift" and not as a loan? Donald Tusk rightly fears that the war in Ukraine will end in a frozen state. That's the most likely outcome when two despots play out in the midst of a completely frozen geopolitical framework.
