Pro-Trump populism flexes its muscles in Poland
The US administration supported conservative nationalist Nawrocki, winner of the Polish presidential election.
BerlinThe populist and conservative MAGA movement of US President Donald Trump scored a point in Europe on June 1 with the victory of conservative nationalist Karol Nawrocki in the Polish presidential elections. "His victory in the presidential elections is a triumph for the MAGA movement, which is trying to influence European politics, polarize it, and divide Europe," notes Joanna Stolarek, director of the Heinrich Böll Foundation in Warsaw. The MAGA movement (Make America great again) appeals to conservative values, national identity, and the rejection of globalist elites and immigrants.
Nawrocki's victory, which the Trump administration publicly supported during the election campaign, has highlighted the growing electoral strength of conservative and far-right populist parties in Europe that enjoy Washington's support. Having Trump's political blessing allows him to stand out from other campaign rivals and make more media noise.
Despite being a political novice, Nawrocki, a nationalist historian and former boxer, managed to win the election with 50.89% of the vote, thanks to the support of the nationalist conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party and Trump. The pro-European candidate Rafał Trzaskowski, mayor of Warsaw, obtained 49.11% of the vote, despite starting as the clear favorite and having a lot of political experience.
Markus Ziener, expert on the think tank German Marshall Fund believes that Trump's support and meeting with him during the campaign had "an impact" on Nawrocki's victory and "made the difference," given the narrow margin by which the conservative candidate won the presidential election. Conservative Andrzej Duda (PiS), who has had a close relationship with the American president
Trump received Nawrocki at the White House in early May and gave his support to him. The United States Secretary of Homeland Security, who I'm going to "conservatives." "By electing a leader who will work with President Trump, the Polish people will have a strong ally who will ensure they can fight enemies who do not share their values. guarantee the continued presence of American troops in Poland.
Nawrocki's victory was celebrated by Trump on social media: "Congratulations, Poland, you have chosen a winner," the Republican wrote. Her "well-deserved victory" marks "the beginning of a new era in Poland. Together, the United States and Poland will forge the most ambitious alliance in our shared history in defense, energy, and trade," predicted US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Leaders of the European far right also congratulated Nawrocki on her victory, from Marine Le Pen in France to Viktor Orbán in Hungary, and Santiago Abascal, the leader of Vox, in Spain.
There are also disagreements with Trumpism, such as in Ukraine.
"Nawrocki will continue to deepen the division and polarization of Polish society with his right-wing nationalist political agenda. Because after the elections comes another election campaign. Nawrocki and the PiS want to contribute to the downfall of Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his government and to call early elections," explains Stolarek. Parliamentary elections are scheduled for 2027. "Cooperation with the EU will become more difficult. Nawrocki will block common EU projects and justify this with the national interest and Polish sovereignty," warns the director of the Heinrich Böll Stiftung in Warsaw.
As president, Nawrocki will have to balance his campaign rhetoric and partisan interests with broader national interests. For example, during the campaign, Nawrocki stated that he does not support Ukraine's NATO membership. Polish conservative nationalists are traditionally pro-US and pro-Atlantic Alliance.
"Is what Trump wants identical to what PiS wants? I doubt it. When it comes to Ukraine and Russia, PiS is very clear: they are firmly against Russia and want Ukraine to win this war. This is a big difference I see between the MAGA movement and Trump, and from the looks of it, they seem to be on the same page." There are many differences between them.
Francesco Nicole, expert at the think tank Bruegel believes there may be "some friction" in the future between Warsaw and Washington, "especially if the United States decides to withdraw more troops from Europe, a key issue for Poland, including MAGA Poland. Even MAGA-supporting Polish politicians remain wary of Russian aggression."