Ultra Karol Nawrocki, from the boxing ring to the Polish presidency

BerlinConservative nationalist candidate Karol Nawrocki will be the new president of Poland, after narrowly defeating Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski at the polls (50.89% of the vote to 49.11%). His victory is a severe blow to centrist-liberal Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his reformist agenda, who nevertheless announced this Monday that he will call a vote of no confidence in Parliament to demonstrate that his coalition has no plans to back down. Nawrocki, a political novice, embodies a more conservative and nationalist stance than his rival, a convinced reformer and pro-European.

Poland's new president is a nationalist historian and former boxer. He was unknown to most Poles until the conservative-nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party decided a few months ago to back him as an independent presidential candidate. From 2017 to 2021, he was director of the World War II Museum in Gdansk. Since July 2021, Nawrocki has been director of the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN), a public institution whose mission is to document and investigate Nazi and Soviet crimes committed in Poland during World War II and the communist era.

Another Trumpist

Nawrocki defends conservative positions on social issues and is close to the conservative MAGA movement of United States President Donald Trump. He opposes the right to abortion and LGBTQ+ groups, same-sex civil unions, and the free provision of the morning-after pill without a prescription.

During the election campaign, Nawrocki played the Trump card, presenting himself as the heir to Duda, whose close relationship with the American president is well known. The Trump administration supported him during the campaign. Nawrocki, who chose the slogan "Poland First," celebrated with the far-right vote between the two rounds.

Nawrocki won despite his election campaign being surrounded by scandals: from the alleged mismanagement of the Institute of National Remembrance to his involvement in a real estate scam involving an elderly man, and the revelation that he participated in fights hooligans when he was young or that he allegedly arranged for prostitutes to be hired for hotel guests when he worked in security, something he has denied.

During a television election debate, Nawrocki sparked controversy when he snus (a nicotine pouch) between the lip and gum, although it is an illegal substance in Poland.

Difficult cohabitation

Poles are once again pushing for cohabitation. "Nawrocki's election is a clear vote against the Tusk government. The majority of the population is dissatisfied with the work" of the prime minister, says Joanna Maria Stolarek, director of the Heinrich Böll Foundation in Warsaw. Tusk has been in power since December 2023, but his progressive reform agenda had been continually torpedoed by Duda's presidential veto. The prime minister was banking on a Trzaskowski victory that would allow him to implement his program.

Nawrocki's victory will likely keep the presidential veto in place and make life miserable for Tusk: "With him, liberalization of, for example, the abortion law or the introduction of same-sex unions will not be possible, but he will also block justice reform," Stolarek said. "This could pave the way for an ultra-conservative victory in the 2027 parliamentary elections. Poland is likely to experience two years of political turmoil."

Implications for Europe

The outcome of the election could also have profound implications for Europe. Poland, which currently holds the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union, is a major player in the European Union and NATO. Nawrocki's victory breaks the winning streak of pro-European candidates, following the Nicusor Dan's triumph against ultra George Simion in Romania and of the of the Democratic Alliance in Portugal.

Nawrocki advocates a sovereign Poland and is critical of the Franco-German engine. He opposes adopting the euro, opposes giving more powers to the European Union, and opposes the European Green Deal, the Migration Pact, and Ukraine's entry into NATO. The PiS had accused Tusk of jeopardizing Poland's close ties with the United States by focusing too much on European partners. A staunch European, Trzaskowski campaigned for greater European integration and a balanced transatlantic relationship. He favored Ukraine's entry into NATO and the European Union, but opposed sending Polish troops into Ukraine.

"A victory for Nawrocki would significantly limit Warsaw's European commitment, which could jeopardize initiatives such as the security agreement between Poland and France and weaken the EU's eastern flank," warned Marta Prochwicz, a political analyst at the Polish National Assembly, before the elections. think thank European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

With a turnout of 71.6%, Nawrocki received 50.89% of the vote (10,606,628 votes) in the second round of the Polish presidential election, while Trzaskowski, the candidate of Tusk's Civic Platform, received 7%. votes), according to official results. Duda congratulated President-elect Nawrocki on his election victory with a message on social media. "It was a difficult, sometimes painful, but extremely courageous fight for Poland, for how the affairs of our homeland should be conducted. Thank you for this heroic fight until the last minute of the campaign! Thank you for the victory! Well done!" the president wrote, leaving X.