One month of ceasefire in Gaza: the peace that never comes

BarcelonaThe ceasefire between Hamas and Israel that came into effect on October 10 It is far from bringing peace to Gaza. We review the elements that define the situation of a truce that Israel is not respecting, and the uncertainties surrounding the next phases. The only point that has more or less worked this month has been the exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners: Hamas has handed over the 20 captives who were still alive in the Strip and 24 of the 28 bodies of those killed. Israel has released 1,968 living Palestinian prisoners and 315 unidentified bodies. The rest of the points of the first phase of the agreement are not being respected, although Donald Trump and Europe are trying hard to insist that the truce is holding. People in Gaza are living in tension, thinking that the ceasefire could collapse at any moment, and in many cases they cannot return to the rubble of their homes because Israeli troops continue to occupy more than half of the Strip or because the roads are impassable.

The ceasefire is not real

Since the ceasefire in Gaza came into effectThe Israeli army has killed at least 242 Palestinians.Including 85 children, an average of eight deaths per day. More than 600 were wounded, the equivalent of 20 each day. Operations to destroy homes and infrastructure have also continued in areas where there is no active fighting. The idea that there is a ceasefire in Gaza—even though it is not verified on the ground—diffuses media attention, giving Israel free rein to continue its policy of making the Strip uninhabitable.

Since the truce came into effect, three Israeli soldiers have been killed in the Rafah area, under Israeli control, where a stronghold of 200 Hamas fighters remains isolated in tunnels. Israel blamed the Islamist organization for the deaths and responded with massive attacks on Gaza. Hamas denies any involvement in these attacks, and it is unclear whether the perpetrators belong to other factions or if, from their hideouts, they are even unaware of the ceasefire. In any case, the presence of these pockets of Palestinian resistance in territory now under Israeli control is causing considerable anxiety for the mediators, who are trying to find a solution. It is complicated because Hamas refuses to surrender and hand over their weapons, and Israel has no intention of letting them leave unless they do so.

Hunger continues

Even with the ceasefire, Israel has not stopped using hunger as a weapon of war in Gaza. Basic products such as rice, flour, dairy products, eggs, and fresh meat remain scarce in the markets: a kilo of apples costs the equivalent of seven euros. Israel has blocked 75% of the humanitarian aid it had pledged to allow in: since October 10th An average of 145 trucks have entered Gaza daily. The agreement stipulated 600. Commercial trucks did enter, mostly carrying products like coffee, soft drinks, and chocolate. According to the World Food Programme, hunger in Gaza remains devastating, while the Israeli blockade of the Rafah crossing, Gaza's only connection to the world for both goods and people, continues. The massive bombing has stopped, but hunger persists. A kilo of apples costs 25 chequeles, almost 7 euros.

The fuel shortage continues to paralyze hospitals, bakeries, and other essential services. Medicines are also not getting in, and, according to the UN, Israel has denied 107 requests for the entry of supplies such as blankets, winter clothing, tools, and materials to repair water purification plants and the sewage system during this month-long truce. These requests were submitted by local and international NGOs. Reconstruction is currently a pipe dream, but the clearing of rubble hasn't even begun: the Palestinian Authority estimates that there are 61 million tons of debris in Gaza, with up to 10,000 bodies still trapped beneath it due to a lack of heavy machinery.

Israel still occupies more than half of Gaza

In Gaza, Israeli troops remain deployed in a "safe zone" that covers more than 53% of the territory, a broad swathe of land stretching north to south along the border with Israel. Palestinians are crammed into tents and destroyed buildings in the remaining area, along the coast. The army has marked the dividing line between the two zones with yellow concrete blocks every 200 meters and is reinforcing dozens of military positions within this buffer zone, which could indicate that this is not a temporary division, as outlined in Trump's plan. According to the plan, Israel should withdraw completely from the Strip once Hamas has disarmed and handed over power to a colonial administration overseen by the US and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair.

Uncertainty about the next phases

It does not appear, therefore, that Israel is prepared for a complete withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, as several of Netanyahu's ministers have made clear, and he continues to refuse to declare "peace." Israel is making the unconditional disarmament of Hamas a condition for withdrawal, and the Palestinian militant group does not appear to have any incentive to hand over its weapons. Hamas has stated that it will only surrender them to a future Palestinian state, although some of its leaders have suggested that they might hand over their arsenal of missiles capable of striking Israeli territory. The problem is that it is not entirely clear what exactly means by disarmament, because Trump's 20-point plan is deliberately ambiguous and leaves many questions unanswered. The steps Hamas should take to disarm are not specified, nor is it clear whether disarmament would include small arms, what the planned timeline would be, or to which authority they should be handed over.

Israel has defined disarmament as a process that could take years. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has stated that disarming Hamas entails dismantling its entire military infrastructure, including its extensive network of tunnels and weapons manufacturing workshops. The complication is that no one knows the full extent of this infrastructure, and in fact, after two years of indiscriminate bombing of Gaza, Israel has been unable to dismantle it. Tel Aviv could claim at any moment that Hamas has not yet fully disarmed and resume its genocidal offensive. The guarantee of this disarmament could be... the deployment of an international force of troops from Arab and Muslim countries, but for now no one dares to volunteer.while Hamas has re-emerged as a force capable of controlling the territory from which Israeli troops have withdrawn and has defeated rival militias sponsored by Israel.

More violence in the West Bank

Israel is more isolated than ever on the international stage, but it retains Trump's support.This plan, in turn, has the backing of Europe and the Arab regimes. And while the debate over Gaza continues, Israeli occupation advances relentlessly in the West Bank, which has been excluded from the negotiations. The Israeli Parliament has moved forward with plans for the annexation of the West Bank—which still needs to pass three votes—and the settlers and the Israeli army are imposing their will: according to the Palestinian Commission Against Settlement and the Wall, the Israeli army and settlers have perpetrated 2,350 direct physical attacks, including the demolition of homes and the uprooting of olive trees. Furthermore, settlements—illegal under international law—continue to expand in a policy of fait accompli that is erasing the Palestinian state from the map.