One billion dollars a day, the cost of protecting Israel from Iranian missiles

JerusalemThe war Israel and the United States against Iran The conflict threatens to drag on longer than anticipated, according to Israeli and American leaders. The initial four weeks announced by Donald Trump were extended to five, and now, for the time being, to eight. Beyond military strategy, a prolonged conflict raises questions about Israel's capacity to sustain a high-intensity confrontation with Iran after years of an economy constrained by the economic crisis. open fronts in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, in addition to the direct tensions with Tehran.

For more than two and a half years, after the Hamas attacks of October 7 Since 2023, when military campaigns were launched in various parts of the region, the Israeli economy has been bearing the brunt of sustained conflicts, in a context of energy and debt crises that are putting pressure on both businesses and households.

In 2024 alone, operations in Gaza and Lebanon raised military spending to €27 billion, 8.4% of GDP, one of the highest figures in the world. Preliminary estimates for 2025 place the total cost of the war between €47.5 billion and €59 billion. Meanwhile, the population, although largely supportive of national defense, is witnessing the government begin cutting civilian budgets by some €4.32 billion, with the aim of bringing the deficit below 3% in the next three years.

Accounting strategies or deception?

"The debt is significant, not only because of its volume, but because Israel hides a large part of it; for example, it doesn't report the money it owes to foreign arms companies for weapons purchased on credit, valued at tens of billions of dollars," Shir Hever, an Israeli economic researcher, explained to ARA. "The energy market is in crisis, public services have been severely neglected, and the standard of living is declining; so much so that 2024 was the first year in Israel's history in which life expectancy fell." Now, the cost of the offensive against Iran could reach some 2.6 billion euros per week if the current restrictions on national economic activity are maintained, according to a warning from the Director General of the Ministry of Finance, Ilan Rom. To reduce its impact, Rom has asked the head of the Home Front Command for a gradual and partial reopening of businesses and jobs, which could cut the weekly economic drain in half.

One of the key factors in determining the duration of the conflict with Iran will be Israel's ability to maintain its air defense system. the Iron DomeAgainst a high volume of Iranian missiles, each attack forces Israel to launch multiple interceptors, placing constant pressure on its ammunition reserves. Among these interceptors are the Arrow-3, designed to shoot down long-range ballistic missiles, which are estimated to cost around €3.5 million each, according to reports. The Wall Street Journal.

During some escalation episodes with Iran, such as in April and October 2024 and during the twelve-day war of June 2025Tehran launched approximately 800 missiles against Israel. For every five enemy missiles, Israel launched two.interceptors, not counting US support. In total, it used some 213, whose cost would amount to approximately 745 million euros, according to estimates by Jonathan Schanzer, former financial analyst at the US Treasury Department and current director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

War has direct and indirect costs. "The direct costs are the weapons, the aircraft fuel, and the reservists, who receive very high salaries, as well as the missile interceptors, which are estimated at more than a billion dollars every day," Hever adds. "If the war continues for a few weeks, it will ruin not only Israel but eventually also the United States, or missiles will simply stop being intercepted," he concludes.

Indirect costs are more complex to calculate: they include losses from closed airports, the loss of academic exchange, and the absence of tourism. "Currently, Israel is isolated, and entire sectors of the economy are paralyzed. Investors would be foolish to invest in a country that goes to war every few months, where they can't hire local staff without them being called up for reserve duty, or where international visitors can get stranded," Hever summarizes. Right now, Israel's ability to maintain such a high level of military intensity against Iran depends not only on its own resources but also, to a large extent, on the scope and durability of US support.