A nightmare fortnight for Starmer

LondonOn September 7, returning from a flying visit to Edinburgh, this correspondent stopped for refreshments at Darlington, a market town –historical category that designates populations with the right to hold a weekly market, but which cannot be called city, Despite its current population of 110,000, it is located in County Durham, in the north of England, 56 km south of Newcastle. London is a long way off, but the impact of the resignation of the deputy prime minister for failing to pay the taxes she should have paid is still noticeable.

In the English imagination, Darlington is well known for the construction of the world's first passenger railway line with steam locomotives. The Stockton & Darlington Railway (S&DR) entered service on September 27, 1825. It will soon be 200 years old. But Darlington is not only an impoverished vestige of the England of the Industrial Revolution, but also a thermometer of the country's political ups and downs: the typical micro-territory to which political scientists and politicians pay attention.

In 2016, the market town opted for leave the European Union; in 2019, in line with this decision, the Conservatives, led by Boris Johnson, won Darlington's seat in the House of Commons. And in 2024, as has happened across the board, The prize went to the Labour PartyBut the traditional English two-party system—with nuances—faced a major competitor: Nigel Farage's Reform UK, which came in third with 14% of the vote.

Farage's expectations

The far-right party has seen a considerable increase in support in recent months. This year, in fact, it has achieved more of 600 councilors in the local elections (partial), ahead of Labour and Conservatives. And the national poll projections give him a voting intention of 30%, ten points ahead of the Labour Party and relegating the Tories in fourth place. Below even the Liberal Democrats.

How is this possible? Farage blames foreigners for all of Britain's ills, and especially the migrants arriving "like an invasion" across the English Channel. He has promised mass deportations if he wins the election. But the explanation doesn't lie solely in his poisonous demagoguery.

There are a number of problems that underpin his rhetoric. And they all point to Downing Street and the premier. All the promises he made during the campaign that crowned him leader in the spring of 2020 He has systematically broken them. He has purged the party of Corbynist elements and the most progressive social democrats. And from the very moderate center that it represented five years ago, it has moved further and further to the right.

On these principles inspired by Tony Blair—unlike Starmer, he had a booming economy and did not cut social spending—, And surrounded by Blairites, the last two weeks have been the worst since he took office. On Monday, September 1, he announced that his government was entering a "second phase," focusing on fulfilling the commitments made: economic growth, 1.5 million homes, reducing waiting lists in the National Health Service, turning the page on the Conservative chaos, etc. To highlight this new phase, he renewed once again—the third time since July 2024—a large part of his closest team.

On September 3, the aforementioned scandal involving Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner broke. Her resignation represents an enormous political loss as a symbol of the lower classes who still support Labour. In a hurry, Starmer reshuffled the government by playing musical chairs: he changed the ministers, but only two new names were added. Conclusion? It had taken Starmer a good year to realize he had made a mistake in the decisions. But not in people? It says little. What was striking was the shift from Justice to Home Affairs of Shabana Mahmood, a minister who is extremely harsh on immigration, with whom Starmer wants to regain the ground Farage is taking from him.

The Lord of Darkness

On September 11, less than a week before Donald Trump's state visit, which begins this Wednesday, Starmer had to dismiss the ambassador in Washington, Peter Mandelson, one of the most obscure figures in British politics of the last three decades. Known as Dark Lord (the lord of darkness), conspirator, powerful and always pulling strings in the shadows, Mandelson has fallen – the third time in his career – because some emails in which he supported to sexual predator Jeffrey Epstein, after he was convicted of paying a 14-year-old girl for sex. Only 24 hours before he was sacked, Starmer had defended him in Parliament. A ratification that took place even though the office of the premier He already knew the content of the emails in advance. But no one bothered to let him read them.

All of this, too many mistakes in too little time. Mandelson was a ticking time bomb. After all, his relationship with Epstein was well known: while the tycoon was in prison, the now former ambassador used the billionaire's apartments in Paris and New York. The photos of the two friends, enjoying a life of luxury and who knows what else, published this weekend in the British press, are obscenely difficult for the Labour electorate to accept.

The situation could still get worse. Downing Street has reported that the security check on Mandelson was carried out without Starmer's involvement. But that version is hardly credible. It will depend on the reports of the selection process, if they are made public. The decision must be made by MPs. And depending on how Labour MPs decide to vote, this will be a significant indicator of the mood of the party and confidence in the party. premier.

At the end of this month, Labour holds its annual conference at a rather delicate moment. On November 26, the Treasury Secretary will announce tax increases in a flat-line economy. And the key moment will come next May, when local elections will be held again in England and national elections in Wales and Scotland. If Reform UK bites hard, Starmer's chair will be blown out of the water, as the press and radio on the islands have amply reported this weekend, giving voice to the disaffected and those who doubt his abilities. Labour does not have the tradition of Tories ruthlessly remove leaders. But today, Starmer is not a leader: he is a man whose only decision has been to betray all the principles on which he came to power.

In Darlington, there are no local elections in 2026: they are in 2027. But perhaps the premier It doesn't even take the temperature. And it's like this market town, there are many in England where Farage's xenophobia has been burning everything for some time now, as could be seen this Saturday in central London, with a far-right demonstration of more than 110,000 people.