Netanyahu increases pressure on Lebanon to blow up the Middle East

BeirutThe inhabitants of the southern suburbs of Beirut found themselves on Monday facing a scene they thought they had left behind facing a scene they thought they had left behind. After threats from Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, numerous residents began to leave the area for fear of a new bombing campaign against Hezbollah's stronghold. It was not a formal evacuation order, nor was it clear when eventual attacks might occur. But the message was enough to reignite fear. Katz warned that if Hezbollah continues to launch rockets against Israeli cities and towns, the army will respond by hitting targets in the southern suburbs of the capital. Hours later, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Defense Minister himself ordered the army to prepare to attack the area, although Donald Trump, assured shortly after, that he had spoken with the prime minister and Hezbollah officials to stop the escalation. Uncertainty, as in every chapter of this war, is accentuated.

the United States tries to keep negotiations open to achieve a ceasefire and send optimistic messages,The most realistic reading is clear: while the United States tries to keep negotiations open to achieve a ceasefire and send optimistic messages, the situation on the ground continues to deteriorate. Israel is expanding its military offensive, Hezbollah is maintaining its attacks, and the main regional actors are hardening their positions precisely when, in theory, they should be negotiating.

According to the North American outlet Axios, the latest initiative driven by Washington to contain the escalation has lost momentum in recent weeks. The proposal foresaw Hezbollah suspending its attacks against Israel in exchange for Israel refraining from expanding the offensive on Beirut. The North American Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, discussed the plan with the Lebanese President, Joseph Aoun, and with Netanyahu. However, Hezbollah demands that Israel cease hostilities first, while Washington maintains that it is up to the Shiite movement to take the first step.

Stalled negotiations

The lack of progress was evident during the talks held Friday at the Pentagon between Israeli and Lebanese military delegations under American mediation. Beirut reiterated its demands for a ceasefire, Israeli withdrawal, and an end to forced displacement orders. Israel rejected these conditions and defended the continuation of the offensive until Hezbollah's disarmament was achieved, in addition to proposing new control and surveillance measures north of the Litani River.

Meanwhile, the Israeli army issued new evacuation orders for seven localities in southern Lebanon and continued its operations around Nabatieh. The capture of Beaufort Castle, one of the most important strategic positions in the south of the country, is part of a campaign that numerous observers interpret as an attempt to consolidate new fait accomplis before an eventual ceasefire.

The historic medieval enclave has suffered significant damage after several days of bombings and artillery fire, according to local authorities. Situated in a dominant position over wide areas on both sides of the Litani, Beaufort also constitutes an access gateway to Jabal Rihan and Iqlim al-Tuffah, considered some of Hezbollah's last strategic depths in the south.

Tehran depends on Beirut

The military escalation also coincides with a particularly delicate moment in the conversations between Washington and Tehran. Iranian media reported that the Islamic Republic had suspended negotiations with the United States aimed at moving towards a resolution to the regional conflict. The coincidence does not go unnoticed in Beirut. What is happening today on the Lebanese front no longer affects solely the dynamic between Israel and Hezbollah. It has also become a piece of leverage within the negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

According to Lebanese sources cited by Axios, sectors of the Revolutionary Guard would be pressuring Hezbollah to maintain the confrontation and strengthen Tehran's negotiating position. From the Israeli side, numerous Lebanese officials interpret the acceleration of the offensive as an attempt by Benjamin Netanyahu to raise the stakes in the face of the prospect of an eventual understanding between Washington and Iran. For now, negotiations officially remain open. But, on the ground, the exact opposite of what de-escalation would require is happening: attacks are multiplying, threats are hardening, and the civilian population is once again preparing for a wider war.