A NATO summit designed to avoid angering Trump

BrusselsDonald Trump has always been very tough on NATO, even though he is controlled de facto by the United StatesHe has moved toward clearly pro-Russian positions and has constantly questioned the Pentagon's commitment to European security. Faced with these signals in the midst of the war in Ukraine, European leaders responded clearly, with conservative German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, for example, proclaiming that the European continent must become "independent" from the US. However, this tension has eased in recent months: the New York tycoon has not made a statement against the Atlantic Alliance for some time, and European partners are giving in to all US demands, to the point that this week's Atlantic Alliance summit in The Hague is planned.

What is most evident in this regard is that the vast majority of allies, with the exception of Spain, have bowed to the Pentagon's demands and have already agreed to increase military spending to at least 5% of their gross domestic product (GDP). The US has consistently insisted that this figure be agreed upon, and European allies are expected to eventually accommodate Trump, despite initial reluctance. with a little cheating In the fine print: 3.5% must be defense spending as currently estimated (the traditional: tanks, missiles, or soldiers), and the remaining 1.5% can be used to account for broader security concepts, such as the fight against terrorism, cyberattacks, or certain infrastructure. This way, the US president will be able to sell the idea that he managed to leave the NATO summit with the percentage he demanded from the start, and European partners will not have to spend as much money on defense as the Pentagon intended.

In this sense, several NATO diplomatic sources indicate that the European allies intended to arrive at The Hague summit with all agreements almost finalized. The objective is to prevent Trump from changing his mind at the last minute and making even more ambitious demands. And that's why, in recent days, some of the allies most opposed to increasing military spending, such as Belgium and Italy, have been making public statements that, albeit reluctantly, they are willing to swallow the 5%. The only one who remains opposed, however, is Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez.

Last Thursday, the Socialist leader sent a harsh letter to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte against Trump's military spending demands, asserting that the 5% target is "impossible" to achieve and counterproductive to European economies and their security. "It's not reasonable," Sánchez wrote.

The letter represents a straightforward amendment to Trump's rearmament intentions, which European allies, with varying degrees of enthusiasm, have had to adopt. However, the Spanish president has decided to keep his distance and, in the midst of a government crisis over the Cerdán case, is heading toward a direct clash with the US leader at the NATO summit. However, diplomatic sources within the NATO alliance are confident that both parties will reach an agreement and avoid a public discussion in The Hague, although Sánchez could use it to divert media attention for a few days from the corruption cases that threaten his administration.

Zelensky is no longer the guest of honor

Recent NATO summits have focused primarily on supporting Ukraine, with Volodymyr Zelensky becoming the guest of honor. However, with Trump's return, no one is talking about what the NATO's commitment to Ukraine should be, and Zelensky has been relegated to the background at this summit: he will only be able to attend the informal Midsummer Day dinner the leaders will hold after the formal meeting.

On the contrary, and largely due to pressure from the White House, the Atlantic partners plan to maintain the language warning about China in the summit conclusions, which they increasingly describe as a "challenge" to the security of NATO member countries.