Macron gives an ultimatum to the parties: if there is no agreement tomorrow, he will call elections to the Assembly.

ParisPresident Emmanuel Macron finds himself at the most critical moment since he took up residence in the Élysée Palace. After seeing five prime ministers come and go in just two years, the situation is becoming unsustainable. He hasn't spoken publicly for days—his explanations for the entire chaos on Monday, when Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned, were given in a short press release—but his entourage has leaked to the press that if the parties don't agree to form a government that won't be immediately censured, he "will assume his responsibilities." In other words, he will call early legislative elections.

Most parties have long been calling for him to call them to end the political instability, caused essentially by the fact that the 2024 legislative elections left a National Assembly without a clear majority. But, in reality, neither the Republicans (traditional right) nor the Socialists are interested in calling elections now. Nor are the Macronists. All three parties are going through difficult times, some due to a lack of internal leadership, others because polls predict they will lose seats. The Macronists, weakened by Macron's deterioration, could also fare worse than in 2024.

On the other hand, the party that is gaining strength and profiting most politically from France's problems is Marine Le Pen's National Rally. Even if she can't run in the elections—she has been sentenced to a five-year ban and the appeal process isn't until January—the far-right party could gain ground in the National Assembly and become the leading force. Given this situation, Macron's suggestion that he will call elections is an ultimatum for most parties.

Negotiating the budgets

The resigned prime minister, whom the president has tasked with attempting to reach a government agreement before Wednesday afternoon, has invited the leaders of all parties to negotiate, above all, two important and urgent issues: the budget and the institutional future of New Caledonia. An agreement on the 2026 financial statements is key to appointing a government that will not be censured. Lecornu lamented on Monday that the parties are setting "too many red lines" and asked them to think more about the interests of the citizens and not those of their party. The threat of elections could push these red lines among the moderate parties.

Le Pen, however, rejected the invitation on Tuesday. "These umpteenth negotiations are no longer intended to preserve the interests of the French people, but the interests of the President of the Republic himself," the far-right leader asserted. Le Pen again called on the president to resign or dissolve the Assembly and call early legislative elections. On Tuesday night, he posted a video on X with an address to the French people, staged in a manner reminiscent of that of a president of the Republic. "The solution to this political crisis, which is a crisis of the regime, is more than ever in the hands of the president [...]. The head of state has two possible options: resignation or dissolution," he said in the video.

The left demands to govern

Whether or not Lecornu reaches an agreement to form a government, likely supported by the usual allies of the Macronists and the Republicans, he has already indicated that he will not be prime minister, according to the French press, citing sources close to him. The left-wing parties, which won the elections united in the New Popular Front alliance, have taken advantage of this to once again demand that Macron appoint a prime minister from the left. It is one of the options on the table and one that has gained considerable traction in recent hours.

However, the four parties that formed part of the coalition – France Insoumise (LFI), the Socialists, the Environmentalists, and the Communists – have been at odds for some time, especially the insubordinates with the Socialists, a situation that complicates the appointment of a progressive prime minister. LFI, the radical left party led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has already confirmed that they will not participate in the government. Their goal is for Macron to leave the Élysée Palace and is calling on the Catalan Parliament to study the motion they have submitted to impeach the president.

For now, the resigned prime minister's priority is to rebuild bridges with the traditional right so that it continues to support the government. On Monday, the Republicans threatened to leave the executive, arguing that Lecornu had appointed the Macronist Bruno Le Maire as a minister. The former economy minister stepped aside on Monday to facilitate the right's continued government. An executive with Republicans and Socialists seems unlikely. But a government with a Socialist prime minister, without the right, and supported by environmentalists, communists, and Macronists, is viable. The difficulty is finding an agreement before Wednesday night.

Suspension of pension reform

Late Tuesday, it emerged that Lecornu is considering offering the Socialists a suspension of the pension reform—which extends the retirement age to 64—one of the left's main demands. The acting Prime Minister asked the Ministry of Economy to conduct an impact study to assess the consequences of halting the reform.

The idea would be to suspend its implementation until a new president is elected, in 2027, who would then decide whether to maintain it, reform it, or repeal it. "If this is the condition for the country's stability, it is necessary to examine the specific modalities and consequences of a suspension," stressed the acting Minister of Health and former Prime Minister, Élisabeth Borne, in an interview on The Parisian.