Like water and oil: the United States and Iran arrive at negotiation with very distant plans

BarcelonaThis Saturday, representatives from the United States and Iran will meet in Islamabad, if things do not go wrong before then, to negotiate an agreement to end six weeks of a war that has accumulated thousands of deaths, has transformed the Middle East, and has shaken the global economy. The Pakistani capital is already experiencing strong security restrictions and the participation of two high-level delegations is foreseen. However, the 15-day ceasefire agreed on Wednesday is the result of the high cost of the conflict for both sides and the prospect that a military solution will not be quick. There is no indication at present that there is a basis for a lasting pact. The negotiation starts from distant positions, with great obstacles to overcome.

Without a common starting point

Iran and the United States say they have received through Pakistani mediation the respective sets of conditions: ten points from Tehran and 15 from Washington. But the official documents have not been made public. And in the journalistic leaks we have seen, the distance between the starting positions is evident.

According to the official Iranian press, among Tehran's demands are:

• The end of all direct international sanctions against Iran and also secondary ones, against third countries that trade with it.
• Control the Strait of Hormuz.
• The withdrawal of U.S. troops from the region.
• Stop attacks against its allies (Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, and Shiite militias in Iraq).
• Release the frozen Iranian assets.
• A UN Security Council resolution that serves as a guarantee of the agreement.

Regarding the United States' demands, the American press has not seen the document but gives details citing official sources:

• A 30-day ceasefire.
• The dismantling of the Iranian nuclear power plants of Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow.
• A permanent commitment by Iran not to develop nuclear weapons.
• Iran must hand over its enriched uranium reserves to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), allow it to oversee all its nuclear facilities, and commit to not enriching uranium within its territory.
• Limit the range and number of Iranian missiles.
• The end of Iran's support for its allies in the region.
• The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
• The lifting of all sanctions imposed on Iran, as well as the disappearance of the UN mechanism that allows them to be reimposed.
• The United States' endorsement of electricity generation at the Bushehr civilian nuclear power plant.

Is Lebanon outside the ceasefire?

Pakistan, as a mediator, has said that the ceasefire agreement includes “all fronts, including Lebanon”. Iran also demands a total cessation of hostilities, including Israeli attacks against its ally Hezbollah. However, Benjamin Netanyahu's government continues its scorched-earth policy in Lebanon, with the worst attacks since the 1980s and repeating the methods it has imposed in the genocide in the Gaza Strip. Trump has backed Israel, stating that Lebanon is “a separate conflict”.

The Gordian knot: Iran's nuclear program

The accusation that Iran was advancing towards the development of a nuclear weapon has been Washington's main argument to justify the war, even though Tehran has always said that its nuclear program is only for civilian purposes. In 2016, Iran agreed to place its nuclear program under international control and signed an agreement with the Obama administration and other nuclear powers. The world was satisfied with this agreement, but Trump unilaterally distanced himself from it, obeying pressure from Israel.

Publicly, US and Israeli officials assure that in the final weeks of the war and also in the June attacks, they have wreaked havoc on Iranian nuclear facilities, which IAEA inspectors have not been able to visit because Tehran does not allow them. But Iran still has 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, which are believed to be buried in the Isfahan research center. Iran maintains that any agreement must recognize its right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes, as established by the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. An agreement that neither the United States nor Israel, which does possess nuclear weapons outside of any international control, has signed. Oman, which acted as mediator before the joint attack by Israel and the United States, had assured that there was room for an agreement. Iran, in fact, had agreed to enrich uranium in countries allied with the United States in the region. The key question is whether the United States will accept any level of enrichment that guarantees that military uses are not reached, or if they will demand that Tehran kneel.

The arsenal of missiles and drones

Washington wants Tehran to stop developing ballistic missiles, halt the production of long-range missiles, and also to stop providing drones and other weapons to its affiliated groups in the so-called "axis of resistance." But the Pentagon has also said and repeated that Tehran's military capacity has been "annihilated": according to General Dan Caine, 80% of missile facilities, 80% of air defense systems, and 90% of weapons factories have been put out of service. Until now, Iran had rejected any limits, because it sees its arsenals as the only real defense against future attacks and also because they allow it to guarantee control over the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait of Hormuz

But Iran's main weapon is not missiles, but geography. It has survived the attack of the world's leading military power thanks to its ability to control the transit of gas and oil in this maritime passage, one of the most strategic in the world. Tehran has shown itself willing to allow ships from non-hostile countries to pass, and to limit only those from countries that attack it. It now says it is willing to keep the strait open if its sovereignty is recognized and has launched a toll system through its international waters.

This contravenes international maritime law, a convention that the United States has also not signed. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has indicated that safe passage will be guaranteed for two weeks, in coordination with the Iranian armed forces and with “the corresponding technical limitations”. Some reports suggest that Tehran might want to charge up to two million dollars per ship, with shared profits with Oman. For the Gulf states, this is unacceptable. Trump has not ruled out this option and has even suggested a possible joint management with Iran. The United States is not as dependent as other countries on the oil tankers that travel through Hormuz and insists that it is the countries most dependent on the strait that should take the lead in reopening it.

Trump's unpredictability

And there is another element that further complicates things: Donald Trump's low credibility and unpredictability, which has become part of his way of doing politics. Shifting goals and apocalyptic warnings have put his authority at risk rather than strengthening it. It is difficult to imagine what guarantees can be given to Iran when the president of the most powerful country on the planet says white one day and black the next. Faced with an existential threat, the Iranian regime wants to be sure that yielding now will not give its enemies an advantage to gain time and attack it again.