Le Pen will bring down the French government and call for early elections.

ParisFrançois Bayrou's government's days are numbered. If the French Prime Minister still held out any hope of being able to overcome the vote of no confidence that will be submitted to the National Assembly next Monday, French far-right leader Marine Le Pen made it clear this Tuesday that she will let the government fall. "There has been no miracle," said Jordan Bardella, president of the National Rally and Le Pen's right-hand man, after meeting with the Prime Minister alongside Le Pen.

Bayrou has opened a series of meetings with political parties this week to try to salvage his vote of no confidence, but it appears they will be of no use. Even before the announcement of these consultations, Bayrou had lost the game: as soon as he unexpectedly announced on August 25 that he would submit to a vote of no confidence given the difficulties of negotiating an austere budget, all the major opposition parties announced they would vote against it.

With an executive formed by Macronists, small centrist parties, and the right that lacks a majority in the Assembly, the votes of left-wing parties—including the Socialists—along with those of the far right are enough to bring him down. The previous government, led by conservative Michel Barnier, fell less than nine months ago in a motion of no confidence voted en bloc by the left and far right.

Legislative elections

Opposition parties assume that Bayrou has no room to overcome the vote of no confidence and that he and his government will have to resign on Monday. Faced with the institutional deadlock that has existed in France since last year's legislative elections, which left the National Assembly more fragmented than ever, with no political group holding a clear majority, Marine Le Pen on Tuesday called on President Emmanuel Macron to call legislative elections. For now, the president is not considering this possibility, according to leaks from the Élysée Palace.

In any case, the far-right leader has called for an "ultra-rapid dissolution" of the Assembly in order to form a new parliamentary majority "that can approve a budget." According to a poll published Saturday by BFMTV, in the event of early legislative elections, Le Pen's National Rally would be the most popular party, obtaining between 31% and 32% of the vote.

Covert resignation

Opposition parties criticize the prime minister for having decided to submit to a vote of confidence before sitting down to negotiate the budget and consider the move a disguised resignation. Bayrou "has chosen to push the button on the projectable seat and open consultations after the fact," lamented Le Pen on Tuesday. "To raise a vote of confidence now is a resignation," asserted the environmentalist leader, Marine Tondelier.

France, with a sky-high deficit and debt, is looking for ways to spend less. But the lack of a parliamentary majority makes things very difficult and forces the government to negotiate the budget with the opposition in a nearly impossible negotiation. Bayrou's budget proposal, which expects savings of 44 billion euros, has drawn widespread criticism for ideas such as eliminating two public holidays, cutting 3,000 jobs in the public administration, and freezing pensions and social benefits for a year.