Labour wins Norwegian elections despite the rise of the far right

BarcelonaThe Labour Party (Arbeiderpartiet) has won the legislative elections in Norway with 28% of the vote and 53 seats, according to the still provisional results. Local media projections, with 57% of the votes counted, indicate that the center-left bloc would obtain 88 seats and exceed the figure for an absolute majority in the Norwegian Parliament by three representatives. Thus, in all likelihood, Jonas Gahr Store will repeat as prime minister for the next four years.

The victory of the center-left bloc, however, does not hide a very significant change in trend on the other side of the political spectrum. The Progress Party (FrP), a right-wing populist party with four decades of history, has recovered the ground lost in the severe defeat it suffered in the previous elections. The party, often described as far-right, won 24.8% of the vote (13 points more than four years ago) and 49 seats (28 more). It thus makes the overtaking in the conservative party (Hoyre), which remains in third place with 14.2% of the vote (6 points less) and 23 seats (13 less), the worst results in twenty years.

Although, according to the current results, nine parties would enter Parliament, only the leaders of Labour, the Progress Party or the Conservatives are vying to be prime minister. If Jonas Gahr Store ultimately does not obtain enough support, the alternative would have to be either Erna Solberg, conservative leader who was already head of the Norwegian government between 2013 and 2021, or Sylvi Listhaug, leader of the Progress Party.

The high fragmentation of the Norwegian lower house traditionally forces it to have to negotiate and govern in coalitions of several parties. That is why the media usually talk about winning blogs, and not parties. If the provisional figures hold, the center-left bloc –blog "roig-i-verd"– would obtain 88 seats, and the center-right, 80.

In 2021, after eight years of right-wing government, the left-wing bloc won much more comfortably: Together, the parties featured in the blog (Labor, the Center Party, the Socialist Left, the Red Party, and the Greens) had a combined total of 100 seats.

The latest polls predicted a Labor victory with 27% of the vote. The party had been governing in a minority since January, after the Center Party left the coalition due to disagreements over energy measures. The anti-European and protectionist party opposed the adoption of an EU energy package. Norway is not a member of the EU, but is part of the European Economic Area (EEA), which means it must adopt EU legislation in certain areas. The Center Party was the hardest hit in these elections, obtaining 6% of the vote, 7.5 percentage points less than four years ago.

Shortly after the centrists' departure, the Labour government was strengthened by the surprise return to Norwegian politics of Jens Stoltenberg, then Secretary General of NATO, who took over as Finance Minister.

A campaign with an economic focus

The election campaign has been dominated by economic issues, such as inflation, fiscal policy, housing prices, and the possible elimination of the wealth tax.

Speaking to reporters after voting on Monday, the Prime Minister stated that the issue that had the greatest influence on voters' decisions was rising prices. "The question of how to meet daily expenses was key... And also what happens with Norway with the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and how we ensure our foreign policy in a predictable way," he said.

Labour advocates maintaining taxes at the current level, while some of the other left-wing parties advocate raising them for the highest incomes. The right promises across-the-board tax cuts and the elimination of the wealth tax. The Progress Party has run a campaign heavily focused on tax cuts and has attracted voters from both the Conservatives and the centrists.