Israeli attacks reignite tension and fear in Lebanon

BeirutTuesday's events further highlighted that the situation in southern Lebanon is nearing a point of no return. Israel maintained pressure throughout the day with attacks in the east and south of the country, while the United States escalated its rhetoric against the Lebanese army and cast doubt on the continuation of its funding to forces loyal to the Beirut government.

On Tuesday night, an Israeli bombing of the Palestinian refugee camp of Ain al-HilwehIn the city of Sido, an attack left 14 dead, two of them children, and dozens wounded. Hours later, early Wednesday morning, an attack on a school bus resulted in one death and eight injuries. The images sparked outrage among residents, who organized funerals and protests denouncing a "massacre" and demanding greater protection. Hezbollah condemned the bombings, calling them "an aggression against Lebanon" and advocating a response "with all available means."

The Israeli army had issued evacuation notices for several towns in southern Lebanon. The messages included, as has become common practice in the region, maps with buildings marked as potential targets and indicated that nearby structures should also be evacuated. Families rushed out of their homes, taking only the essentials, while ambulances moved to the entrances of the designated areas, ready in case of further attacks. Among the properties listed as Israeli targets was the home of the former mayor of Tair Filsei. Meanwhile, political tensions have continued to escalate in Lebanon. The Lebanese army canceled General Rodolphe Haykal's trip to Washington, where he was expected to discuss state control of all weapons—including those of Hezbollah—and US military assistance programs. The cancellation, announced just hours before the scheduled flight, angered Republican members of the US Congress, who accused the Lebanese army of "missing an opportunity" to weaken the Shiite militia, which had blamed Israel for the instability on the border.

Since 2006, the United States has been the main funder of the Lebanese Armed Forces, which receive more than $3 billion in aid. In October alone, Washington contributed $190 million to finance military equipment and enhance troop training. However, the Trump administration considers the progress achieved by the Beirut forces insufficient. The Lebanese army claims to have removed nearly 10,000 rockets, 400 missiles, and 200,000 unexploded ordnance from the south. However, the White House estimates that more than half of the work for which the Lebanese army receives aid remains to be done. Israel, meanwhile, insists that Hezbollah is attempting to rearm from Syria, despite the fall of the Assad regime.

Threat from Washington

Israeli military pressure has added to Lebanon's diplomatic crisis. Washington delivered a list of ten measures to Beirut to curb Hezbollah's influence in the country and cut off its foreign funding. Among other directives, the White House is demanding the closure of branches of Al Qard al Hassan (a Hezbollah-affiliated bank with a presence in Lebanon), stricter border controls, monitoring of transfers, and the elimination of any mechanism that allows the Shiite militia to use public institutions for its financing. The deadline for implementing these precepts is 60 days, with the threat that failure to do so could interrupt US aid to the Lebanese army.

The US pressure coincides with the threat of an even broader Israeli operation in the country. Although Netanyahu has so far held back the option of a large-scale attack, he insists that Hezbollah cannot rebuild its infrastructure in southern Lebanon, and he often uses this pretext to justify his bombing campaigns. With these attacks, the constant Israeli drone flights over its territory, and Hezbollah's actions, Beirut is experiencing a moment of extreme vulnerability.

In the southern villages, Funerals, evacuations, and sirens set the rhythm of daily life.Meanwhile, the population tries to prepare for the next attack. With an army under international pressure and a neighbor determined to use force, the country's stability hangs in an increasingly precarious balance.