Israel launches a new ground offensive in southern Lebanon in a new escalation despite the ceasefire

BeirutThe fragile ceasefire that since April had partially contained the violence in Lebanon is once again faltering following a strong Israeli escalation that began Monday night, the most intense since the first weeks of the offensive. The new troop movements respond to the call of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to "press the accelerator even harder" against Hezbollah. While Donald Trump tries to keep indirect negotiations with Iran open, and Washington insists on the possibility of a regional agreement – despite the United States' bombings of Iranian positions this Tuesday in the early morning –, on the ground the weapons do not fall silent. Israel has expanded operations, mobilized reservists and multiplied attacks from the south to the Bekaa Valley, in the east of the country, a key area for Lebanese agriculture. In parallel, the Shiite militia Hezbollah has responded in recent hours with 22 drone and rocket attacks on Israeli positions. Their targets have included Israeli soldiers, tanks, barracks and buildings. Direct combat has also been recorded north of the Litani River. The Shiite organization continues to carry out a dynamic that, according to analyst Lina Khatib, associated with Chatham House's Middle East and North Africa program, also responds to directives from Iran, interested in keeping Lebanon within the broader negotiation framework with the United States.

For the first time since the ceasefire began, the Israeli army ordered on Tuesday the complete evacuation of Nabatieh, one of the main cities in the south of the country. The message disseminated by the Hebrew military spokesman, Avichay Adraee, demanded that residents move "north of the Zahrani River" – more than forty kilometers into Lebanon and far beyond the Litani –, before launching new attacks against Hezbollah. The order did not affect a specific neighborhood or a border town, but an entire urban center that has become a ghost town for months, where, however, paramedics and medical personnel resist.The scene summarizes the new phase of the conflict. It is no longer solely about limited operations on border villages or military positions. The war is beginning to shift towards urban centers, such as Nabatieh or Tyre, while Israel makes it clear that it maintains complete freedom of action despite ongoing diplomatic discussions. Hours after the evacuation order, bombings continued over the Nabatieh region and fighting intensified in nearby localities, where Hezbollah has stated that it was engaging in hand-to-hand combat with Israeli troops advancing beyond the so-called yellow line, the security strip that Israel is trying to consolidate within Lebanese territory.The Bekaa Valley has experienced one of the bloodiest nights in recent weeks. In Mashghara, Israeli attacks have left at least twelve dead after a series of consecutive bombings. Rescue teams continued searching for victims among the rubble on Tuesday morning. Among the deceased was a religious teacher whose son had died in another Israeli attack last year. The war in Lebanon is also beginning to produce its own genealogies of death: families struck generation after generation by the same conflict that never seems to end.Uncertainty and ambiguity

The escalation coincides with an extremely ambiguous moment on a regional scale. On paper, the United States and Iran continue to explore formulas to avoid a direct confrontation, despite what can be considered a skirmish last night. But in Lebanon, the possibility of an agreement seems to be generating the opposite effect. Hezbollah is trying to demonstrate that it remains an indispensable military player before any definitive negotiation, while Israel seeks to strengthen its pressure capacity and alter the balance on the ground before diplomacy limits its room for maneuver.In Beirut, many interpret the current offensive as an Israeli attempt to impose new military rules in the south of the country ahead of negotiations scheduled for this Friday at the Pentagon. Israel justifies the advance by the increase in Hezbollah drone attacks against its troops, although the exact scope of the operation is still uncertain. Israeli rhetoric has also hardened. The far-right minister Itamar Ben-Gvir even called this Monday to advance to the Zahrani River, in addition to cutting off the country's electricity supply.The contrast is particularly brutal coinciding with the anniversary of the Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000, a date that Hezbollah continues to celebrate as "Liberation Day". Twenty-six years later, the south is once again emptying under Israeli evacuation orders, bombings are destroying new areas, and thousands of families are once again taking to the roads of exile.