Israel and Lebanon extend a virtual ceasefire for 45 days

JerusalemRepresentatives from Israel and Lebanon agreed this Friday in Washington to extend the ceasefire for 45 more days. The truce was declared on April 16, although it has not been respected. The announcement was made by the United States, which is acting as a mediator. Talks will resume on June 2 and 3, and in a military meeting at the Pentagon on May 29. Israel and Lebanon, which do not have diplomatic relations, had held two previous rounds of contacts in Washington.

While negotiations were underway, Israel intensified military operations in Lebanon and Gaza. Israeli aviation carried out several bombings in southern Lebanon, destroying an ambulance center linked to the Islamic Health Authority, with two deaths. According to the Lebanese Ministry of Health, since the ceasefire came into effect last month, Israeli attacks have caused at least 657 deaths in Lebanon. In Gaza, the Israeli government announced an attack against Izz al-Din al-Haddad, considered the top military commander of Hamas in the Strip and one of the architects of the October 7 attacks, according to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz. An Israeli security source assured that there are "preliminary indications" that Al-Haddad may have died, but the army has not confirmed it. Negotiations between the United States and Iran remain stalled. Far from the de-escalation that was supposed to follow the truce, the cross-statements between Washington and Tehran show that mistrust continues to mark any attempt at negotiation in a conflict that has already lasted 77 days.The North American president, Donald Trump, reiterated this Friday that “The United States controls the Strait of Hormuz” and assured that North American forces have “essentially dismantled” Iranian military capability. The Republican leader also hinted at a possible shift in his position on Iran's nuclear program: Washington would be willing to accept a temporary twenty-year suspension of Tehran's nuclear activities, provided there is a “real” commitment. Until now, Trump had demanded that Iran definitively renounce uranium enrichment and abandon any nuclear aspirations.For his part, the Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, in a statement broadcast on state television, has assured that Iran has been the winner of the war and that, despite continuing to believe in diplomacy, the current ceasefire is "very fragile".Negotiation at a standstill

From New Delhi, where he participated in the two-day summit of BRICS –the group of emerging countries formed by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa–, the head of Iranian diplomacy reiterated that “Iran cannot trust the Americans at all”. “Every day a different message arrives, and sometimes two contradictory messages on the same day. This only increases distrust,” he lamented. According to Araghchi, this ambiguity is today “the main obstacle” to resuming solid negotiations. The minister also confirmed that Iran has spoken with Russia about the possibility of Moscow safeguarding part of Iran's enriched uranium, although he warned that the nuclear issue will be relegated to later stages of any negotiation.In this context, the crisis particularly concerns China, which obtains approximately half of the oil it imports through Hormuz and buys about 90% of Iranian oil exports. After meeting with Trump in Beijing, Chinese President Xi Jinping has argued that dialogue is the only way to a permanent truce. According to Trump, both Washington and Beijing agree on two objectives: to completely reopen the Strait of Hormuz and to end the war.Meanwhile, the situation on the ground continues to be far from normalizing. The U.S. Central Command (Centcom) reported this Friday that it had diverted 75 commercial vessels and disabled four to ensure compliance with the blockade on Iranian ports.Simultaneously, an official cited by the Israeli media Channel 12 warns that Israel is preparing for a possible imminent reactivation of the conflict with Iran. “The Americans understand that negotiations with Tehran are going nowhere,” stated the Israeli official. “We are preparing for days or weeks of renewed fighting while we await Trump's final decision. We will know more in 24 hours”.