The attack strikes Iran at a time of severe internal instability

BeirutThe joint US-Israeli attack on Iran has struck major cities, including Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, and Tabriz, as well as densely populated urban areas and strategic locations such as defense and government facilities. The semi-official Tasnim news agency reported that seven missiles hit the area near the presidential palace in Sheriman, north of Tehran, and also the compound of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This marks a qualitative escalation compared to the 12-day war Israel launched in June: the target is not only Iranian military and nuclear facilities but also the political and religious center of the ayatollahs' theocratic regime. Iranian authorities confirmed that Khamenei was taken to a safe location and was unharmed, denying reports from Tel Aviv and Washington that he had been killed. The crucial question now is whether the ayatollahs' regime, a primary target for both Washington and Tel Aviv, will survive.

The offensive comes amid economic fragility and mounting social tension in the country. Since 2022, following the death of young Mahsa Amini at the hands of the morality police, massive protests and repression have erupted. In December, new protests broke out against rampant inflation, initially started by Tehran merchants and intensified with a youth-led mobilization against the regime. This repression again turned bloody: according to some reports from local human rights organizations and international observers, the death toll may have reached 300. [The following appears to be unrelated and possibly a separate text fragment: "It has played a significant role in these protests"] Reza Pahlavi, the son of the Shah Overthrown in the 1979 revolution, he lives in exile in Washington. Pahlavi celebrated the joint attack against his country and, like Trump and Netanyahu, urged Iranians to seize the moment to rise up against his government. It is far from clear what effect Trump's call will have on police officers, soldiers, and members of the Revolutionary Guard, Iran's elite force, to lay down their arms in exchange for impunity, if they do not want to end up dead.

Domestically, the escalation serves a cohesive function that the authorities have openly expressed. The regime appeals to the defense of sovereignty and the revolutionary legacy inaugurated by Ruhollah Khomeini in 1979 to forge a united front against US and Israeli aggression. The Foreign Ministry described the attack as a violation of Iran's sovereignty, stressed the need to defend the homeland, and appealed to the resistance of the Iranian people and to the right to defend themselves against external aggression recognized in the UN Charter.

Regional Escalation

It is unclear whether the regime has decided to go down fighting or whether it believes that creating regional chaos can contribute to its survival. The Iranian response has been immediate and regional in scope, with drone and ballistic missile attacks against Israel and US military bases in Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. In some cases, the missiles were intercepted, and a civilian death was reported in Abu Dhabi from the impact of Iranian projectile debris. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has claimed that its attacks on US bases resulted in at least 200 casualties, including deaths and injuries, although detailed lists of names or ranks have not been released. The Iranian offensive coincided with reports circulating on social media and in Tehran media outlets about an impact on Palm Jumeirah, Dubai's artificial tourist island. Regionally, developments are being closely monitored by allies and neighbors. In Lebanon, Hezbollah has expressed its support for Iran and stressed the need to halt attacks against the Islamic Republic, warning that regional stability depends on it. The movement has not announced direct involvement in the conflict, but political sources in Beirut acknowledge that the situation is keeping the south of the country on high alert. The regime's survival will have direct consequences for its allied groups, such as Hezbollah and Hamas.

The Iranian offensive has also provoked reactions in other Gulf countries. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Tehran's regional rival, condemned a "blatant Iranian aggression" against the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Jordan; expressed its solidarity with these countries, and supported "all measures they deem necessary" to respond to the violation of the sovereignty of the affected states.

The sequence of events—stalled nuclear negotiations, military offensive, and regional response—marks a shift in the dynamics of the conflict. The attack on strategic facilities in Iran, the reported impacts on significant urban centers, and the allegations of civilian casualties broaden the crisis beyond the debate over the nuclear program. The region thus enters a phase of extreme tension, with multiple fronts and actors assessing their next moves under a precarious balance. Diplomacy has not been formally abandoned, but it has been sidelined by the logic of faits accomplis on the ground.