Iran attacks the oil traffic that evades its blockade and the price skyrockets again

BarcelonaAn oil tanker sailing off the north coast of Qatar was hit this Thursday by the impact of "several projectiles" which caused an undetermined number of casualties, according to a British maritime security agency. The attack comes after Iran announced it would close a route in the Strait of Hormuz used to bypass the blockade imposed by Tehran on maritime traffic. This week, attacks against oil tankers sailing there have reached their highest level since the start of the war against Iran – at least 12 have been recorded against crude oil and liquefied natural gas transport ships –, according to maritime security companies, which has once again pushed the price of oil above 100 dollars a barrel. The Strait of Hormuz is vital to the global economy: before the start of the war, approximately one-fifth of the planet's oil and liquefied natural gas passed through this maritime route.

On Wednesday, Tehran announced that it would further tighten the blockade of the strait and threatened to close passage routes it considers illegal, referring to a southern corridor that follows the coast of Oman, directly opposite the Iranian coast, which they claim was opened through blasting some rocky barriers.

Mohammad Reza Naqdi, an advisor to the commander of the Revolutionary Guards, stated to the official Fars agency that "the Strait of Hormuz is closed and the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran control it completely." Tehran says that only an average of 10 vessels cross this route daily, compared to the 125 that did so before the joint attack by the United States and Israel on February 28. The US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, on the other hand, responded on Wednesday that Iran "has completely lost control" of the strait. "Almost as much oil is coming out now as before this conflict began," he stated.

In recent weeks, oil exports from the Middle East had reached pre-war levels, 16.5 million barrels per day, despite the fact that attacks on oil tankers in Hormuz had continued. Data from the maritime analysis firm Kepler shows that 40% of exports are made by land through oil or gas pipelines via Saudi Arabia and by means of a small number of lower-capacity vessels that are difficult to detect and that transfer cargo to larger ships outside the area threatened by Iran. Kepler revealed on Tuesday that the number of detectable vessels crossing Hormuz had fallen to the lowest level since the start of the war: in the last week of September, only three transits were detected, the lowest figure since July 2023.

Regarding the activity of smaller vessels, which leave no trace when they turn off their transponders and lights to avoid detection, no figures can be determined: these shuttle vessels go back and forth with small loads that they transfer to larger oil tankers anchored outside the strait. Meanwhile, Iran has continued to bomb vessels attempting to cross the strait without its authorization.

These attacks reached their most intense level last week since the start of the joint attack by the United States and Israel against Iran. This reduces supply and increases logistics costs, in addition to generating uncertainty that drives prices up, despite the oil that can be exported overland through Saudi Arabia. According to information published last week in the British newspaper Financial Times, ship captains who are willing to take the risk of suffering an attack are earning a salary of 100,000 dollars per month with an extra 50,000 per trip. On Monday, the Wall Street Journal reported that shipping companies are spending between 30,000 and 40,000 dollars on each trip to transport oil in small vessels to large tankers. The American media outlet cited job offers for sailors of up to 25,000 dollars per trip, which would be equivalent to a year's salary under normal conditions for crews from India, China, or the Philippines.

The Houthi advance continues

Bab el-Mandeb, the strait through which vessels pass into the Red Sea to continue their route to the Mediterranean through the Suez Canal, has also become complicated in recent months. The Houthis of Yemen, who have the support of Iran, stated this Thursday that on October 6 and 7 they carried out a double attack against the international airport of Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, and against the Abha airport. Three people reportedly died. The Houthi military spokesman, Yahya Saree, has threatened civil airlines to stop flying to Saudi Arabia, and has stated that the country's airspace has become a "theatre" of military operations, with the exception of the holy Muslim cities of Mecca and Medina.

Yemen has been immersed in a conflict since the Houthis took control of the capital, Sanaa, and several provinces in September 2014, a fact that led a coalition led by Saudi Arabia to intervene in March 2015 in support of the internationally recognized government. The military escalation that began in July has triggered the most intense fighting in Yemen since the relative calm that followed the truce negotiated under UN auspices in April 2022. With the intensification of clashes in September, the Houthis took control of several strategic areas in the provinces of Hodeidah and Taiz, and advanced to the island of Mayyun, in the Bab el-Mandeb strait.

Oil above 100 dollars

Amidst contradictory messages and concerns about supply, the price of oil rose on Wednesday and a barrel of Brent crude surpassed 100 dollars. This affects the pockets of Americans and increases the pressure on Donald Trump, who will soon face the test of the polls. According to various reports revealed by the American press, the president is reportedly considering resuming military operations against Iran in the coming weeks, even before the midterm elections on November 4th. Last week, a third American aircraft carrier set sail for the region and will be in position by the end of October.

The United States has established its own counter-blockade of Iranian ports, and occasionally fires upon ships linked to Tehran. But in Iran, they are also downplaying the impact of this blockade. As reported this Thursday by the Mayor of Tehran, Alireza Zakani, "the first shipment of 26-meter metro-buses has arrived by ship in the city, in addition to several electric buses," and they will soon be incorporated into the capital's fleet. The United States has also bombed Iranian targets in retaliation for Tehran's attacks on vessels, although no new bombings of this type have been recorded since September 1st.