In Sweden, the extreme right is also closer than ever to governing

BarcelonaThe far-right party Sweden Democrats (SD, by its acronym in Swedish) could be closer than ever to governing. For the first time, all the formations of the country's right-wing bloc are open to the party being part of a possible coalition of government if they obtain enough support in this Sunday's parliamentary elections. The cordon sanitaire that Sweden had also defended has been definitively broken, and the SD is now considered a perfectly legitimate party to be part of the conservative bloc, which aspires to remain in power for four more years.

The current right-wing executive took power in 2022 with a tripartite of conservatives, Christian Democrats and liberals, with the external support of the SD. Practically since then, the left-wing bloc, led by the social democrats, has led the voting intention polls. But the gap with the right-wing coalition is narrowing rapidly as election day approaches. Just three weeks ago, more than ten percentage points separated the two blocs and it seemed almost impossible for the current prime minister, Ulf Kristersson, to be able to retain the position. But this week, polls predicted a lead for the left-wing bloc of only two or three points.

Four years ago, the Sweden Democrats scored two victories: they achieved the overtaking to the traditional conservatives (Moderates), and they became the second force in Parliament. And for the first time they managed to have influence in the government, even though they were not in it. Now the goal is to take another step: to obtain ministries. "In many ways, the SD has been treated as a party of government: the coalition agreement was negotiated by four parties on equal terms. But there is a big difference in controlling ministries or not," points out to ARA the political scientist Nicholas Aylott, from Södertörn University in Stockholm.

The leader of the Sweden Democrats, Jimmie Akesson, has said that the party should have a number of ministries "proportional" to the support it receives in the elections. At this moment, the SD is already the party with the most weight in the bloc blue, and Akesson has pointed out that he aspires to a dozen ministries.

Kristersson, however, has made it clear that he will be the candidate for prime minister. In this way, the conservative leader offers ministries to the far-right in exchange for securing the position if his bloc wins, regardless of which party is the most voted and despite the prime minister's low popularity. "Now Ulf will be the prime minister for four more years. And then I will be the prime minister," said Akesson, convinced, to the newspaper Dagens Nyheter.

The question of the possible entry of the SD into government has largely focused the election campaign. The Social Democrats, who aspire to regain the government with Magdalena Andersson at the helm, have proposed a strategy that is more defensive than proactive. "Vote for someone who doesn't have extremist ideas," says the campaign slogan. "If you ask me what the great political ambitions of the Social Democrats, Sweden's largest party, are, it's difficult for me to say," the expert summarizes.

Immigration and security

From its privileged position, the SD, a populist, nationalist, and xenophobic party, has pressured for the last four years to implement its priorities, especially regarding the tightening of migration and security policies. "The SD is no longer as radical as it was at the beginning, but there is no doubt that it has been the three traditional right-wing parties that have moved towards the SD and not the other way around," states Aylott. "What has been implemented this legislative term in terms of migration would have been unthinkable eight years ago," he says.

In this area, and following the European wave, the Sweden of 2026 has nothing to do with that of 2015. It has gone from boasting about being one of the most generous countries in the world with refugees –during the Syrian refugee crisis it received 163,000 asylum seekers; only Germany welcomed more– to defending a "paradigm shift" to stop being a host country.

Among the measures implemented, it stands out that now only short temporary permits are issued for refugees and that many requirements have been introduced to obtain citizenship. The conditions for obtaining work permits have also been tightened and family reunifications have been made more difficult. And the prime minister himself has used the concept of "remigration".

The other major central theme of the far-right is security. Four years ago, the Sweden Democrats capitalized on the growing sense of insecurity in the country, especially due to the high numbers of explosions and shootings linked to criminal gang fights. During this legislative term, for example, sentences for certain crimes have been toughened and the age of criminal responsibility has been lowered to 13 to stop the recruitment of child hitmen.

According to official police data for the first half of this year, both shootings and explosions reached their lowest levels since records began in 2017. During the first semester, 39 shootings (8 fatal), less than half that of the same period last year. The police attribute this to different factors and the fruit of efforts from recent years, for example, through international collaboration.

"The government can highlight all this as a success –points out Aylott–. The paradox is that when these issues stop seeming so urgent, voters will probably not vote thinking about these topics as they did four years ago". In this sense, he says that "the government may end up being a victim of its own success". "When the situation no longer seems so dangerous, perhaps voters will return to their previous preferences and be able to prioritize other problems", he adds.

Differences between the left

Whoever wins, the post-election negotiations will be complex. But they will be especially so if it is the left-wing bloc that has to try to form a government. The four right-wing parties have shown over the last four years that they can reach an agreement, while Magdalena Andersson will have to make great efforts to get formations as distant as the Centre Party, economically liberal in tendency, and the Left, of socialist ideology, into the same bag.