How will Gaza be rebuilt?

BarcelonaThe ceasefire in Gaza is still very unstable, but international powers are already beginning to discuss plans for Gaza's reconstruction. European countries, Arab countries, Canada, the United States, and even Japan are willing to contribute financially. The UN announced this week that it would cost $70 billion to rebuild everything Israel has destroyed in two years of war. And that's practically all, because Gaza is now a mountain of rubble: there are an estimated 55 million tons of rubble in the Strip, the equivalent of 10 pyramids at Giza.

"The first thing we need to do is clear all this rubble, and the main obstacle is all the explosives still in the debris, which have already killed some people trying to return to their homes. Many explosives specialists are needed to defuse all this. And we also need help clearing the bodies still in the rubble," UNRWA Director Raquel Martí told ARA.

In these first days of the ceasefire, some bulldozers have entered the Rafah crossing to clear the way for the humanitarian aid trucks that are beginning to arrive—still completely insufficient, Martí points out—but many more, along with a lot of construction materials, are expected to arrive. 92% of the houses are destroyed or damaged, as well as 89% of water and sanitation infrastructure, 92% of schools, and 60% of hospitals, according to data from OCHA (UN Agency for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs). "Rebuilding all this is going to take a long time, and while it's being done, temporary infrastructure is needed, not just prefabricated houses to accommodate the population, since more than 1.5 million Palestinians need a place to sleep, but also to begin resuming education for children who haven't been in school for two years and who also need it," Martín.

But who will decide what and how it is built, and who will manage the $70 billion expected to be raised for reconstruction? This is the great dilemma: "Whoever controls this will be the one who designs what Gaza will look like, where key infrastructure will be located, how property rights are distributed, etc.," explains Víctor Burguete, a senior researcher at CIDOB. "Depending on how you design a city, you may or may not facilitate a new Israeli military intervention," he notes.

According to the expert, this should be done by an independent entity that includes the voice and participation of the Palestinians in Gaza. The director of UNRWA emphasizes that "the UN is fully prepared to manage reconstruction, with transparency and accountability. It has done so in previous reconstructions, such as in 2014, and could do so again with the support of other international organizations and experts." But as Burguete points out, "the United States and Israel flatly reject the UN being the one to do this."

Trump's plan calls for the creation of a "transitional international authority" in Gaza led by former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Donald Trump himself, although at no point has it been suggested that this entity would manage reconstruction. Just a few weeks ago, it was leaked to the press that he think tank led by Tony Blair had been listening to proposals that spoke of turning Gaza into a Riviera or a tourist resort, as proposed by Trump. This could lead to the umpteenth displacement of Palestinians, at least from the coastal area, if not the entire Strip.

A Riviera or a Gaza Strip for Gazans?

The chances of this Riviera going ahead or not "will depend on who provides the most funds and, therefore, has the most decision-making power, and who controls these funds" for reconstruction, says Burguete. If the money is deposited in a fund managed and controlled by the UN or an independent international organization, if it is controlled by the Palestinian Authority, or if it is controlled by Tony Blair's transitional authority, the results will be very different. Israeli analysts even defend the idea of the Trump Riviera as a way to ensure the security of the enclave, because Israel will not bomb luxury hotels.

Here, the influence of the European Union and other actors, which will depend on their financial contributions, could be decisive. French President Emmanuel Macron has already made it clear that he wants to play a leading role in the future of Gaza, and the leaders' summit he convened in Paris last week with representatives of Arab and Western states has already begun to discuss reconstruction. "The European Union can regain its voice after being sidelined in this conflict for two years, and that will depend on the amount of money it contributes," says Burguete, also highlighting the pressure that Gulf states like Saudi Arabia can exert, "which could use Gaza as a bargaining chip in the negotiation of the second phase of the Abra Accords." These agreements for the reestablishment of diplomatic and trade relations with Israel have been frozen by the war.

"But the first step is to achieve stability and security, both internally between Hamas and the other factions, and externally on the part of Israel, so that what happened in 2014, when reconstruction was carried out and has been devastated again, does not happen again," the analyst highlights. These days, France, the United Kingdom and the United States are working on a resolution that should be adopted shortly by the UN Security Council to lay the foundations for a future International Stabilization Force (ISF) that guarantees security in Gaza.

The second step would be to agree on the governance of this reconstruction, and third, to ensure that the materials can arrive, given the border control maintained by Israel. "In previous offensives, Israel has blocked the entry of construction materials because it fears they might fall into the hands of Hamas," explains Raquel Martí. And the CIDOB analyst points to a fourth important point, which would be decisions on property rights, that is, who will own the land, "because the loss of deeds during these two years of destruction has been enormous."