Germany accuses Russia of the drone attack attempt on Leipzig airport

BarcelonaPoland, Estonia, Latvia, Sweden, Romania, Lithuania, and now Germany too. Incursions and drone threats in NATO territory have become more frequent in recent months and have intensified. In early August, a drone loaded with explosives impacted a Ukrainian cargo plane at Leipzig airport without detonating, in one of the most direct sabotage attempts recorded so far at a key NATO logistics center and further into European territory. After almost a month of investigations, this Tuesday, for the first time, the German government directly blamed Russian intelligence services for the incident.

Police investigations, crime patterns, and intelligence service conclusions have led the German executive to attribute "Russian responsibility for the attempted attack on Leipzig airport," stated the German Interior Minister, Alexander Dobrindt. As the same minister had already hinted just after the incident, Berlin understands that the drone incursion is part of a broader Russian hybrid warfare campaign aimed at destabilizing Europe. "We are the daily target of hybrid warfare," Dobrindt said at the time. "Espionage, sabotage, cyberattacks, or covert operations by foreign powers aimed at destabilizing Germany or inflicting direct damage are a constant reality."

So far, the Kremlin has shaken off responsibility, claiming there is no evidence of its authorship. Moscow, which in August described the alleged attack as a "manufactured provocation" and expressed "its concern about a new wave of anti-Russian hysteria in Germany," stated this Tuesday that it will respond to Germany's "anti-Russian actions."

The Leipzig events are part of a series of similar, increasingly frequent episodes, reminding us that Europe is not on the sidelines of the war in Ukraine. On several occasions, resources from the Atlantic alliance have had to be mobilized to intercept Russian fighter jets and intelligence aircraft (such as the Il-20 or Tu-22M3) over the Baltic Sea, flying without transponders to avoid detection. In the east of the continent, several airspace violations in Poland and Romania by Russian drones have been recorded, which have had to be shot down by NATO fighter jets. At the end of May, an unmanned Russian aircraft deviated from its target in Ukraine and injured two people in the Romanian city of Galati, the first victims on Community territory.

"Since the Leipzig episode, we have entered a new phase of hybrid warfare," Domènech Ruiz Revesa, Senior Researcher at Cidob in security and defense, assures ARA. He highlights that more than the quantity of attacks, the quality surprises him, which has moved from the digital to the physical sphere, implying that "we are getting closer and closer to a conventional war." However, he insists that the objective of this type of attack is to sow chaos and make Europeans tired of supporting Ukraine, rather than having real effects.

A joint response

The incursion of the drone laden with explosives into German territory has been the last straw and has put European governments on alert. "[The incident in Leipzig] is a sign that we must consider the possibility of more direct and violent actions on our territory", assured last week Celine Berthon, director of the French counter-intelligence agency DGSI. Berthon warned in a business forum of a "meteoric" increase in hybrid threats – such as cyber penetrations and violent acts perpetrated by local intermediaries – in the defense and technology industries, and in strategic sectors such as energy and communications.

In line with what Chancellor Friedrich Merz had advanced – who assured last week that his government will make "the perpetrators of hybrid attacks pay a price" – the German executive has announced that it will take measures against Russia, such as the closure of the Russian Consulate General in Bonn and the termination of the agreement with the Russian House cultural center in Berlin. According to information from the German newspaper Bild, Berlin could go even further and expel employees of the Russian embassy in Germany.

But, at the same time, the chancellor is betting on a coordinated response with European and NATO partners, which should arrive "in the coming days". According to diplomatic sources cited by Politico, the plan currently being reviewed – and which will be discussed this Tuesday and Wednesday at the informal meeting of EU Foreign Ministers – provides for massive sanctions against some 1,600 Russian actors, including 800 individuals and 800 companies. And the debate on the use of frozen Russian assets is also expected to be reopened, although Belgium, the state where the requisitioned funds are deposited, will first need to be convinced.