Evacuation plans, sirens and new shelters: Eastern Europe prepares for the Russian threat

BarcelonaAnti-drone shields, surveillance flights with warplanes, new battalions on NATO's eastern flank, increased arms production... Europe is immersed in an undeniable remilitarization race, but protection does not end in the military sphere. Faced with the increasing threat of hybrid attacks by Russia, the most exposed countries have also redoubled their efforts in civil defense.

This year, residents of Vilnius have had to seek shelter on several occasions due to anti-aircraft alerts, and two weeks ago, in eastern Poland, the first mass evacuation of civilians took place during an alert for Russian airstrikes just four kilometers from the border.

Population protection plans are being reoriented towards new hybrid warfare scenarios. While until now they focused on natural disasters or pandemics, other risks are now growing, such as cyberattacks, sabotage of infrastructure, power and communication outages, drones, disinformation, and, in the worst-case scenario, military attacks. Experts point out that it is necessary to update warning systems, shelters, evacuation plans, communication systems, energy infrastructure, medical preparedness, reserves of basic products, and to have clear responsibilities among national governments, municipalities, companies, and civil society.

It is key that the population knows how to act during the first hours after a crisis. The Nordic countries are an example in Europe. Sweden has been conducting awareness campaigns for years about the need to be prepared in case of a crisis with an emergency kit, as the European Union also promotes, and has a wide network of shelters. Norway and Denmark have recently joined, with awareness campaigns along the same lines.

Finland, a model to follow

But the model country in terms of civil defense is Finland. The proximity to Russia –they share 1,300 kilometers of border– and the memory of two wars in the last century have kept this Nordic country always on alert. Contrary to the general trend, Finland never eliminated military service, which means that almost a third of the adult population (900,000 people) are reservists, that is, militarily trained personnel who could be activated in case of need.

Finland, like Sweden, bases its security on a "total defense" strategy, that is, the entire society is involved in the planning of the country's defense: public administrations, companies, social organizations, and civilians. Furthermore, the country has one of the most extensive and adapted shelter networks: it has 54,000 bunkers with space to accommodate 4.4 million people, 85% of the population. But it does not fall into complacency because of this.

At the beginning of September, the Finnish city of Kuopio hosted a major civil protection training exercise, which was described as the most important since the Second World War, with more than 2,000 participants. Hundreds of volunteers spent the night on cots in a sports center, in an exercise that simulated a scenario in which the city's critical infrastructure, including electricity and water, had been interrupted by cyberattacks and there was the threat of missile attacks from Russia.

This week, however, in Lithuania an exercise was carried out with even more people involved: 3,000 civil servants and institutional representatives, in addition to a thousand volunteers, have participated in various civil defense maneuvers for seven days. Not only are the mobilization structures being tested, but also the continuity of government and essential services, communications, energy, healthcare, logistics, and the reception of allied forces. Furthermore, for the first time, Lithuania has put into practice its national population evacuation plan. Six municipalities located on the border with Kaliningrad and Belarus have participated in evacuations and four cities have rehearsed the reception of displaced persons.

Evacuation plans of the Baltic countries

"Mobilization is not just about the preparation of institutions, but about the ability of the entire country to function as a single system when circumstances become difficult and decisions must be made quickly," argued the Deputy Minister of National Defense, Tomas Mikelkevicius.

Lithuania has activated the state reserve for the first time, with stored food supplies as part of the reserve being delivered to designated locations. Hospitals have also been tested, with simulation exercises for evacuations and preparations to receive a large number of wounded.

Within the framework of this major national exercise, the Lithuanian authorities have also announced that they are working with Poland to prepare a cross-border evacuation plan that would allow for the transfer of residents from Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia across the Polish border. Poland is also preparing for the possibility of receiving evacuees from the Baltic states.

Experts underline that the most important thing is to have plans, routes, means of transport, and reception capacity ready before a crisis situation occurs that requires the evacuation of civilians, such as an imminent military threat or a major attack on critical infrastructure, with serious disruptions to essential services.

An "underground shield" in Poland

In Poland, on July 30, a Russian ballistic missile with an explosive payload violated Polish airspace during a massive attack against Ukraine. The projectile impacted an unpopulated area about sixty kilometers from Lublin, in eastern Poland, without causing casualties or damage, but just the day after the incident, the government announced a "comprehensive reform" of its emergency protocols and the launch of a mobile application to alert citizens in case of an alarm and inform them of nearby shelters. "We live in an era in which knowing what alarm signals mean and how to respond to them must become a common skill," said the Minister of the Interior, Marcin Kierwiński.

That same day, a link began to arrive on all mobile phones in the country to download the digital version of the Safety Guide, a document with instructions on how to protect oneself in case of an alert and what to include in the evacuation backpack, which has also been sent to every household. The Ministry of the Interior launched a television campaign this September, which includes advertisements on the flagship morning program of the public broadcaster TVP, with the aim of educating people on how to respond to emergency situations. It has also launched a mobile application and a website to geolocate nearby shelters.

In Poland, there are more than 10,000 shelters built during the Cold War, but the vast majority are outdated and do not have enough capacity to protect the entire population: they have fewer than one and a half million places, while Poland has 38 million inhabitants. For this reason, this year the "shelter law" has entered into force, with a budget of 8 billion euros, to create an "underground shield." It mandates that the underground floors of new buildings be designed as temporary shelter spaces and provides for the adaptation of subways, underground parking lots, and public buildings, with the goal of having 32,000 shelters across the country. The government requires that new shelters have at least three liters of water per person per day, non-perishable food, flashlights, landline and mobile telephony, fire extinguishers, and rest areas for half of the occupants.

Germany is in a similar situation. According to public data, there are formally 579 public protection structures left in the country, but none are functionally and operationally prepared. For this reason, the country has promoted a new national shelter framework, which is based on adapting a large number of rapid shelter spaces in homes, workplaces, and other buildings where people spend a significant part of the day. The German government approved a Civil Protection Pact in May of this year with a budget of 10 billion euros until 2029 with various measures, such as alert systems and rescue service equipment, backup energy and water supply, and the incorporation of guidelines on public shelters.

Europeans, especially those in the east, are once again forced to live with the constant threat and to recover a philosophy typical of the Cold War, in a context in which, although there is no open war, there is also no peace, as European leaders have been insisting for some time.

Meanwhile, in southern Europe, where the danger is not perceived in the same way, civil defense protocols are light years away from those in the north and east of the continent. In Spain and Italy, for example, governments have only just begun this year to consider the need to create national security strategies in the face of new hybrid threats.