Electoral clash in the streets of Warsaw between the two presidential candidates

BerlinTwo rival parallel marches, one in support of the pro-European liberal candidate Rafal Trzaskowski and the other by supporters of the conservative Karol Nawrocki, marched through central Warsaw on Sunday, a week before the second round of the Polish presidential elections, which will decide who will lead the country until 2030. The two marches, led by Nawrocki, are divided: a more liberal and pro-European Poland, embodied by Trzaskowski; and a more conservative, nationalist, and opposed to a European Union with greater powers. It was the first time since 1989 that two simultaneous marches took place in the same city with rival presidential candidates. According to the Warsaw City Council, some 50,000 people participated in the nationalist march, and around 140,000 in the pro-European one.

The "Great March of Patriots" in support of Warsaw Mayor Trzaskowski was organized by Prime Minister Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition. The organizers named it this way because they don't want conservatives to hijack the homeland in their speeches.

Participants in the pro-Trzaskowski demonstration waved Polish and European flags, in contrast to the pro-Nawrocki march, which was a sea of white and red flags. Some participants carried banners with Trzaskowski's election slogan: "All of Poland Forward."

"It's time for honesty, justice, and decency to triumph. The future of Poland is in your hands," Trzaskowski told Poles during the march, which he made accompanied by Prime Minister Donald Tusk and the winner of the recent presidential elections in Romania.

"I believe in Poland, I believe in you; I see the Poland that all of Europe sees, the Poland of honest people, the Poland of people who believe in a better future, who believe in their families, who believe in their cities. You have reason to believe in our homeland, because it has reason to believe in yourselves," he said, adding that he also criticized the slowness with which his government is pushing through the reforms he promised, due to the constant veto of the ultra-conservative president, Andrzej Duda, in power since 2015.

Tusk wore a red heart embroidered on his shirt, a direct reference to the "Million Hearts March" called in October 3 (PiS), which then governed Poland and ended up losing the parliamentary elections.

A sovereign Poland

At noon, the "March for Poland" march by Nawrocki's supporters also began. The conservative candidate promised "an ambitious, proud, and secure Poland." "It will be a socially responsible Poland. We will win," he asserted. "The vote for Karol Nawrocki is a vote for a sovereign Poland, and not for ceding ever more powers to international institutions," PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski emphasized.

The second round of the presidential elections will take place on June 1st, amid the rise of the far right and with Prime Minister Donald Tusk's pro-European project at stake. The mayor of Warsaw, a candidate for Civic Platform, won the first round with a smaller lead than expected, with 31.4% of the vote. In contrast, Nawrocki, of the Law and Justice party, obtained 29.5% of the vote.

Both candidates appear tied in the polls, with 46.3% of voting intention for the second round. 7.4% of Poles remain undecided one week before the elections. The mobilization of their respective electorates and the votes of far-right supporters will be decisive in tipping the balance in favor of one candidate or the other.

The far-right candidate Slawomir Mentzen, candidate of the Confederation party, obtained 14.8% of the vote in the first round, while the ultra-nationalist Catholic candidate Grzegorz Braun obtained 6.3%. Whoever mobilizes their base more and wins over far-right voters and the undecided will win the elections.