Five years after the flight of the emeritus: "The monarchy is in an unstable state of affairs."

BarcelonaKing Emeritus Juan Carlos I remains a burden on the Spanish monarchy. Five years have passed since the escape of the former head of state, materialized in August 2020, when she left Zarzuela Palace to settle in the United Arab Emirates. However, neither the financial and personal scandals have ceased, nor has the royal family's cornering been reversed. The situation is at a standstill, with news piling up as it is now. the four million euro earnings since living under the authoritarian regime, the future publication of his memoirs to vindicate himself by taking advantage of the fiftieth anniversary of his proclamation as king, or his sudden visits to Spain. Therefore, the experts consulted by ARA conclude that the monarchy is experiencing an "unstable equilibrium," a survival that is not in doubt now; and it has prompted a plan by King Felipe VI to evade Juan Carlos's obstacles with a strategy of encapsulation, which some consider successful, while others see as partially unsuccessful. All this, while the former monarch remains in the public eye.

The leak occurred amid a trickle of compromising information that cast a shadow of corruption, in addition to open tax investigations. The controversy over the collection of commissions for the AVE train in Mecca, which Switzerland and the Supreme Court Prosecutor's Office were already investigating, ended up being combined with a voluntary declaration to the Tax Agency in which it was stated that he had not declared, over several years, eight million euros in gifts in kind. A tax mess involving opaque cards that the Treasury had targeted, resulting in four million euros being paid to avoid an investigation, thanks to a loan from some friends—whose income has now returned. In December 2020, he had also paid €678,393 to avoid another investigation for tax crimes.

The associate professor of modern history at the UB and expert on monarchies, Àngel Casals, assures the ARA that there is a "called" element: "The king left so that the royal household could be cleaned up, but the constitutional change to eliminate male preference over male preference" succession of a monarch has not yet been made," he declares. In his opinion, this has happened "because there is a lot of fear of discussing these aspects and reopening the debate on the monarchy." He does point to "a strategy of encapsulation with exemplary measures such as reducing the royal family to the king, queen and their daughters, separating the parents and the princesses," and "promoting the figure of Leonor." The formula: "that no one talks about them while waiting for better times, which will be when Juan Carlos dies."

In this sense, the professor of history and political science at the Abat Oliba CEU University, Sergi Rodríguez López-Ros, comments that "the royal family royal family and Felipe VI have done a well-done operation to make clear what their family was, they have distanced themselves from their father, who they wanted to take a back seat." Likewise, the professor of political sciences at the UAB Marc Guinjoan argues that "everything that had to happen has already happened" and that "nothing can happen that distorts King Juan Carlos or the royal family more" because, "intelligently, they have wanted to distance themselves, they have managed to turn the page and everything that comes out is formally separated from it.

Is it in danger?

"It has indeed greatly affected the public's assessment of Juan Carlos," comments Rodríguez, although it has not affected Felipe VI. Among other things, due to the "distance" he marked and "the transparency regulations, making gifts and salaries public, with a public agenda and the renunciation of inheritance." Therefore, he comments that the institution is "in iron health." According to data, 46.5% of the population rates the emeritus king directly with a 0, according to a June survey by the IMOP Insights Institute for Vanitatis And, in fact, those who fail represent 72.8%, with an average of 2.4, far from the 6.6 of King Felipe VI, who receives the approval of 76% of Spaniards. However, in Catalonia, only 23% of Catalans approve of the monarchy, according to the first CEO barometer of this year, and receives a score of 2.1.

"When the Crown has had good news, something about King Juan Carlos has appeared," says Rodríguez, a burden "difficult to manage": he believes it is difficult for him to situate himself and understand that "his son is playing the role that corresponds to him." Thus, Casals asserts that "every time he comes or appears, the royal family goes backwards" in its attempt to silence the matter and warns that it is "toxic capital" because it is doing its own thing. He also believes that the institution suffers from "an institutional fragility induced by political forces that don't know how to resolve it," but "it remains in an unstable equilibrium that, as long as nothing changes, could last for many years." In fact, "it is highly protected by the Constitution," as Guinjoan points out, adding that the PSOE now has "no incentive" to go against it. He recalls, however, that the situation was critical under the King Emeritus: "They understood well that they had to step aside and start from scratch because the survival of the institution depended on it."

Now, how will Juan Carlos I be assessed in the future? Rodríguez emphasizes that "the problem is like that of President Pujol," whose work is "remarkable," and points out that the former monarch's "good" role in the Transition will be weighed, while the scandals are contagious and "prudence" is a factor. Guinjoan also agrees with the comparison with the former president: "The image of Juan Carlos I has been severely tarnished, but he certainly has ways of trying to change it, and experience tells us that there are ousted leaders like Jordi Pujol who have relatively restored their image." Therefore, he understands why he is playing the memoir card, even though "people know him," "the royal family has closed the door on him, and he lives in the Emirates." On the other hand, Casals predicts there will be a "whitewashing" when he dies, but now understands why he is "concerned" because he could leave behind the image of a "whoremonger and commission agent."