Drones hidden in prefabricated houses, activated by remote control: this was the Ukrainian attack on Russian aircraft.

Moscow"Today is the worst day since June 22, 1941," wrote a Russian veteran of the Ukrainian war with more than 100,000 followers on Telegram on Sunday. Operation Teranyina, The unprecedented Ukrainian attack on Russian airfields, threatens to leave a trauma that some dare to compare to the day the Nazis unexpectedly invaded the Soviet Union. Much more than the destroyed devices, the moral imprint of seeing yourself attacked 5,000 kilometers inside your confines, with a method as audacious as it was difficult to prevent, may force the Russian authorities to rethink many security measures.

Ukrainian economist Roman Xeremeta speaks of a "psychological ambush." The drivers of the trucks carrying the sophisticated prefabricated wooden houses with hidden drones were most likely as surprised as Vladimir Putin when their trailers were suddenly and remotely opened. A stranger called them all to strategically stop next to the air bases.

The only suspect in the operation whose photograph was released by the police is Artyom Timofeyev, a native of Donetsk, who is believed to be the owner of the vehicles. However, according to the Russian media, at least the owner of the Chelyabinsk warehouse where they were parked, who has already fled to Kazakhstan, and an alleged businessman from Murmansk, who ordered the transport of the prefabricated fake cabins, are also allegedly involved.

According to Professor Xeremeta, this modus operandi This causes "every Russian cargo truck to become a potential weapon, and every highway a threat vector." In his view, the result is "paranoia" and "skyrocketing internal costs" because it will be necessary to inspect all suspicious trucks, monitor the roads, distrust private drivers, and slow down all civilian and military logistics. "Ukraine has turned uncertainty into a weapon and Russia's vast territory into a battlefield of doubt," he concludes.

It does not alter the course of the conflict

However, both expert estimates and data from the Russian Ministry of Defense put the number of destroyed aircraft at between 10 and 12, in addition to others damaged, far from the 41 still maintained by the Ukrainian general staff. According to analysts, it is unlikely that Russia will have to reduce its bombing as a result of the attack, although it could be less extensive. The reason is that Kiev had succeeded, with airstrikes on other bases in the previous days, in getting the Russian military to seek shelter and amass aircraft at the airfields chosen for the attack, and now it may have to consider dispersing them for the purpose of protecting them.

Analysts also emphasize that Ukraine was careful to limit its targeting of aircraft that were actually participating in the airstrikes on Ukrainian territory and did not attack other bases with strategic aircraft. Strategic aircraft are capable of traveling long distances and carrying very heavy weapons, such as cruise missiles and nuclear weapons. However, experts point out that aviation only accounts for 10% of Russia's atomic delivery systems and performs support tasks, while 60% are land-based missiles and 30% are submarine-based.

Everyone agrees that Operation Teranyina does not endanger Russia's nuclear deterrent capability or threaten its sovereignty or territorial integrity. Therefore, beyond the calls of ultranationalist bloggers, a nuclear retaliation attack by the Kremlin is unthinkable. Vladimir Putin has remained silent for days, and his spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, limited himself to saying on Tuesday that they want to investigate the matter before taking any retaliation.

War, at home

Despite take the initiative to the front –The data on Russian troop advances for May are approaching the pace of the late summer offensive of 2024–, Ukrainian targeted attacks on Russian territory expose the defensive vulnerabilities of a vast country, threaten to increase as the conflict drags on, and have a symbolic effect: bringing the war closer to the Russians.

A new attack by Ukrainian special services on Tuesday against the bridge connecting Crimea with Russia, the third since the start of the invasion, has once again set off alarm bells in Moscow. Likewise, the Russian Investigative Committee accuses Ukraine of being behind the derailment of two trains last weekend in the Russian regions of Bryansk and Kursk, which killed seven people and injured nearly 100. Agents claim to have found traces of explosives on the bridges the trains were crossing and are calling it a "terrorist attack."

Russian state television has exaggerated the incidents on the trains and has downplayed the attacks on the airfields to the point of being almost hidden. However, one question lingered on one of the main talk shows, as commentators wondered if anyone could have prevented it: "In the fourth year of war, who will take responsibility for something like this?"