China, the permanent factor in all of Trump's geopolitical equations
From the trip to Beijing, the recognition of a rival and the will to stabilize positions on the global map emerge.
WashingtonOnly those in a position of power can afford to speak out loud and clear. Xi Jinping bluntly told Donald Trump that if Washington mismanages its relationship with Taiwan, the situation could escalate into open conflict. The US president did not publicly respond until Air Force One took off from Beijing. For the first time, the man who seems to only know the language of threat showed restraint.
Xi was settling the score for the siege the Republican has waged against Chinese influence in what he considers his "Western Hemisphere": Latin America, Canada, and Greenland. During the flight home, the tycoon suggested that Xi's opposition might make him reconsider an arms package for Taiwan that has been approved for over a year. Trump has acknowledged the quality of the rival with whom he plays chess on the geopolitical board. "The key to this entire meeting is stabilization. Trump wants to stabilize the situation with China, and Xi Jinping does too. But there is still a big disagreement," Robert Sutter, a professor of Asian studies at American University, explains to ARA.
Right now, Washington is working in its "backyard" to install governments aligned with its administration and create a market space for the United States. In recent years, China has become strong in Latin America through La Franja, a global cooperation program that acts as Beijing's main soft power tool. La Franja has been key to the construction of major infrastructure. For example, in Colombia, the works on the Bogotá metro are linked to this program, not to mention that many public works contracts end up being awarded to Chinese consortia. The same happened last year with the Suez Canal and the pressure to oust the influence of Chinese companies.
Trump's intervention in Venezuela, with the decapitation of the Chavista regime, was also a hard blow for Beijing. Not because of access to crude oil – the country has diversified its oil sources so it doesn't depend on any one – but because of the millions in debt that has been left in limbo. Despite the opacity of relations between the two countries, it is estimated that Venezuela's debt to China amounted to more than $10 billion in 2024.
Unlike Latin America or Greenland, which by their location are strategic territories for the US, Taiwan is important for the race it is waging with China for artificial intelligence. Even Palantir, the US AI company that has contracts with the Pentagon, underlined it in its manifesto: "The question is not whether weapons will be built with AI; it is who will build them and for what purpose." Since Trump returned to the administration, the island has been anxiously watching the magnate's steering wheel movements. Joe Biden's administration had made its support for Taiwan explicit, but the Republican has shown discontent over the supposed imbalance in the relationship.
More distance with Taiwan
In fact, despite the brutal pressure the island is under, Trump had no problem imposing tariffs on Taiwanese products. In January, US technology companies announced a trade agreement in which Taiwan committed to investing 250 billion dollars in the manufacturing of semiconductors and technology in the US. All in exchange for lower tariffs for Taiwan. Trump's statement upon his return that he is reconsidering arming Taiwan (even though the package had already been approved for a year) reinforces the distance Washington seems to have established with the territory.
On Friday night, just after returning from China, Trump gave an initial interview to Fox and expressed himself about the island in the following way: "When you look at the odds, China is a very, very powerful and big country. This is a very small island. Think about it, it's 59 miles away. We are 9,500 miles away. This is a somewhat complicated problem. Taiwan developed because we had presidents who didn't know what the hell they were doing. They stole our chip industry." However, unpredictability is the company's hallmark, and Trump's statements usually have a short expiration date. One of the first tests of whether there has been a real shift regarding the island will be the arms package that is yet to be sent.
In his press statements, Trump also suggested that as long as his presidency lasts, Beijing would not attack the island. An idea that reinforces this pragmatic shift towards China, where it seems the only clear understanding right now is to stabilize their position to be able to focus on the race for artificial intelligence. "Technological and AI competition is seen as an existential threat to Washington. The US sees that if they allow China to control these industries, they will not only be subordinate to Chinese economic power, but they will be subordinate to military power. Therefore, the main driver of this hard policy in Washington is that they do not want to be dominated by China," concludes Sutter.