Burnham stirs up the Brexit hornet's nest and proposes "going all the way," hinting at rejoining the EU

LondonAndy Burnham has managed to stir up the British political hornet's nest with his first speech as Labour leader at the party's annual conference, which concludes this Wednesday in Liverpool. And he has done so with three proposals that could mark his future as premier –reform of the electoral law, implementation of a free and universal social care system for the elderly, and a rethink of the relationship with the European Union–, which he launched during his speech on Tuesday. Some have turned up their noses; others have seen a glimmer of light.

Politically, the most explosive initiative is the one regarding the EU, which the most reactionary press, from the Daily Mail to the Telegraph, have already rushed to label a "Brexit betrayal". Whether it is a betrayal or a legitimate capacity to rectify, the only reality is that ten years later, the great elephant in the Palace of Westminster –and in Downing Street– remains the divorce with Brussels and all its consequences. In this sense, both the French President, Emmanuel Macron, and the Spanish Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, in a joint press conference from Madrid, described the hypothetical return of the United Kingdom to the EU as "excellent news" and a "good decision".

During his speech on Tuesday, Burnham said that "Brexit has done more harm than good" to the country. "We must restore a higher level of growth and prosperity for the United Kingdom," he added. Burnham thus established a direct link between the endemic economic crisis that the United Kingdom is suffering, which is weighing down its future, and Brexit. The premier insisted on the matter, calling on the country to rethink the referendum result. "At the end of this year there will be a summit between the United Kingdom and the EU." A summit that, in his view, must be a beginning, and not an end. "I say to you and to the country: we will not be able to offer the United Kingdom the clear path we need to face the rest of this century until we decide what long-term relationship we want to maintain with what continues to be our main market. I cannot honestly tell you that the current situation is good enough."

And this Wednesday, in a recorded interview with the BBC, conducted after his intervention at the conference, he drove the point home: "I want to study the options, and I am speaking seriously. I have said before that I would like to see the United Kingdom rejoin the EU during my lifetime, so it would not make sense for me to say anything else.".

But the premier poured cold water on expectations of a return to the EU. "We have to understand what the nature of the different options we have on the table would be," he said in the interview. "We could stay as we are, which is an option, if people consider that this is where we should continue. We could study what the former Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne has proposed, regarding a customs union, or what the Liberal Democrats have defended at their conference regarding the single market. Or we could go all the way. Therefore, it is clear that there are options that must be considered, and we have to analyze what is viable."

Professor Adnan Menon, a professor at King's College London and director of the think tankUK in a Changing Europe, assured this morning, in a brief email response to ARA, that Burnham's intentions represent "a major change" in the policy with which Labour presented itself in the 2024 elections. The party's manifesto guaranteed at the time that the government would not go beyond a series of red lines defined by the referendum result: no to the single market, no to the customs union, and no to the free movement of people. Menon, therefore, senses that the Prime Minister's intention is to open Pandora's box and start the debate on the EU. "I think he wants there to be a debate during this legislature, presumably with the aim of arriving at concrete proposals for the election manifesto."

The same debate and another decade

Just a few months ago, in an interview with this newspaper on the occasion of the tenth anniversary of the Brexit referendum, Menon stated that the country's relationship with the EU is very uncomfortable. "The United Kingdom has managed to place itself in a position where all plausible alternatives are problematic. There is no easy option". And regarding opening the political debate for re-entry, he also asserted that "it would be extraordinarily difficult" and that it would possibly drag on "for a decade".

Aside from the summit with the EU, which was postponed following the change at Downing Street from Keir Starmer to Andy Burnham last July, other factors, especially economic ones, could modify or derail the agenda of the ambitious reforms that the premier has put on the table.

Burnham admitted this morning in his long interview with the BBC that the warnings from Simone Rossi, CEO of EDF Energy, who has assured that the United Kingdom may face a new energy crisis this winter, which the population could have to face for many months, "are no exaggeration". In fact, the forecast is that as of January 1st the price of the gas and electricity bill will increase by more than 200 pounds per year for each family, the most significant increase in the last four years.

"When I look at fuel prices at the moment, including diesel and petrol, I see it as very difficult for people who have to fill up their tanks. When we look at energy prices in homes, they are also complicated. As I have said, I am doing everything I can, such as removing VAT from bills, but it is really very difficult, and that is why the situation in the Middle East must focus a good part of our attention". Burnham's challenge is to set out a triple battle in the long term, based on the three proposals launched. But it will be the short term that determines whether he will be able to carry out any of the reforms he has in his portfolio, including a new relationship with the EU.