Bolivia ends twenty years of leftist governments with "capitalism for all."

Buenos AiresAfter twenty years of governments of the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS), party led by Evo Morales, who was the first indigenous president of Latin America (2006-2019), Bolivia has shifted towards the center-right in presidential elections that mark a change in the political cycle: the president-elect, Rodrigo Paz, together with the vice-president-elect, Edmand Lara – known as Captain Lara – has surpassed his opponent by nine points (54.5%) in the second round of elections. Tutorial Quiroga, who along with his vice presidential candidate, Juan Pablo Velasco, received 45.5% of the vote.

Amid a fuel and currency shortage crisis, and rampant inflation, The Bolivian electorate already made one thing clear on August 17, when the first round of elections was held.Bolivia wanted to begin a new political cycle, leaning toward the right. Tuto Quiroga presented himself as a candidate with technical and political experience, reflected in the United States, who sought to eliminate taxes on foreign investment and fuel imports, and who saw the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as a lifeline to rescue Bolivia through a loan. Rodrigo Paz, for his part, openly rejects IMF intervention and proposes a "capitalism for all," with tax reductions, easier access to credit, and state assistance to produce in a freer and less intervened market.

Paz has also pointed to the alleged inefficiency and corruption of the outgoing government of Luis Arce (successor to Evo Morales, with whom he is currently feuding), and has said he will consider eliminating the fuel subsidy, promoted by the MAS and unsustainable for a portion of society due to the country's fiscal problems. But he will have to be cautious with cuts to subsidies, as they could cause increased inflation and, above all, social unrest. "I think the most popular thing about Rodrigo Paz right now is his pragmatism," political scientist Natalia Aparicio told ARA. "He has made it clear that he will not be swayed by ideological positions, but will do what is necessary to stabilize the crisis."

This analyst believes Paz will bring that same "pragmatism" to his relations with world powers: "He will make deals with whomever he must." According to Aparicio, "Paz clearly has the blessing of Donald Trump and Javier Milei, so he is a right-wing government, not a center-left one, as some would have it." The expert has doubts about the extent to which the new president will respect national sovereignty regarding natural resources such as lithium and rare earths, or about the extent to which he will transition illegal mining to legal status. Regarding the arrest warrant against Evo Morales for sexual abuse of minorsHe simply said he would let the justice system operate. "He has made some very demagogic proposals," he said, "that are unrealizable in the short term, so the real challenge will be to build credibility and governability."

The identity vote, key in Bolivia

Where the Paz-Lara duo did get it right was in appealing to the popular sectors. Bolivia has particular political cleavages, which are the class issue linked to ethnic and cultural identity. According to official data, nearly 40% of the Bolivian population considers themselves part of an indigenous or native people, such as the Quechua or the Aymar. "In Bolivia, the popular classes always determine the results," says Aparicio. "And in this sense, although Tuto has tried to connect with the electorate, he hasn't succeeded because he wasn't authentic." In fact, a turning point occurred during the campaign when racist tweets were discovered that Tuto Quiroga's vice-presidential candidate, Juan Pablo Velasco, had written in 2010 and 2012: "The kolles [Andean indigenous people] must all be killed" and "The w [Andean] must be burned, let all those who worship it die, they are animals." According to Aparicio, "the impact of these tweets has been fundamental to the results."

Historically, Bolivian public life has been in the hands of white oligarchies, descendants of the Europeans who perpetrated, in Bolivia, one of the most brutal and violent plunderings of the entire colonization of the Americas. It wasn't until the end of the last century—in the 1980s and 1990s—that indigenous and peasant movements brought their struggle to the institutions, materializing it in the creation of the MAS (Mexican Workers' Party). "In Bolivia, you can't win an election with such an anti-MAS rhetoric," says Aparicio. "And you can't win, either, with a government that doesn't respect the pollera (traditional Andean skirt)." According to the analyst, "although Rodrigo Paz has a hyperconservative rhetoric—he won with the slogan 'God, country, and family'—he doesn't deny the plurinational state and authentically recognizes the Bolivian people."