Between militias and investors: the tense balance of Al Sharaa in post-Assad Syria

BeirutSix months have passed since the fall of Bashar al-Assad, and Syria remains caught between hope and collapse. Ahmad al-Sharaa, former leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham militia, now heads an interim government. which is trying to bring stability to a devastated country. Although it lacks constitutional legitimacy, it has some international support and has focused its efforts on breaking diplomatic isolation and attracting investment to boost reconstruction.

The most significant boost has come from abroad. In March The United States and the European Union announced the partial lifting of sanctions., conditional on concrete advances in security and a political roadmap. While the measures only affect sectors such as energy, transportation, and civil reconstruction, they have been enough to spark the interest of Gulf countries. Qatar has been the first to act, with a promise of $7 billion in energy infrastructure investments, including a solar plant and two thermal power plants in Homs and Latakia. Saudi Arabia, more cautious, has offered direct financial assistance to the state to support the payment of public salaries and halt institutional deterioration.

Despite these announcements, the challenge is daunting. According to World Bank estimates, the country needs between $250 and $400 billion for complete reconstruction. Two-thirds of hospitals remain out of service, the electrical system is operating at barely 20% of its capacity, and millions of people remain displaced. No amount of foreign capital will fill this gap in the short term, especially without legal guarantees and political stability.

The government has attempted to offer signs of openness. BUILDEX 22, the international construction fair held in Damascus in May, served as a showcase for the new official discourse. More than 700 companies participated, 250 of them foreign, and deals worth some $1.5 billion were announced. Despite official enthusiasm, few contracts have been formalized. Interested companies are demanding transparency, clear bidding rules, and a less opaque public administration.

The integration of combatants into the army

In the political sphere, Al Sharaa has chosen not to dismantle the structures inherited from the old regime. It has maintained much of the civilian bureaucracy and the police apparatus. The most pressing issue remains arms control. This week, the government announced that it will formalize the integration of some 3,500 former foreign jihadist fighters into the Free Syrian Army, within the new 84th Division. The majority are Uyghurs who belonged to groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham or the dissolved Turkestan Islamic Party. The measure has had the support of the United States, which makes its support conditional on a transparent and supervised process.

Turkey, which historically protected some of these groups, remains silent. China, on the other hand, has openly protested: it considers that Consolidating Uighur fighters into a formal military structure is a direct threat to their national security..

The situation in the northeast, which for years had been outside Damascus's control, has begun to reshape itself. In March, Ahmad al-Sharaa's interim government and the Kurdish militia-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) signed an agreement to integrate the northeast's civilian and military institutions into the state structure. The pact provides for the dissolution of Kurdish autonomous structures, the gradual incorporation of SDF fighters into the new national army, and the return of state control over strategic infrastructure such as border crossings, oil fields, and airports. In return, the government has formally recognized the civil and political rights of the Kurdish population and opened a channel for direct representation in the upcoming constitutional process. Although full compliance with the agreement is pending, the progress represents a significant shift after years of deadlock.

Despite these tensions, the government has avoided total collapse. It has managed to stabilize the Syrian pound, tentatively revive trade with Lebanon, Iraq, and Jordan, and restore basic services in cities like Aleppo and Damascus.

However, the future remains uncertain. The fall of Assad has not brought a new order, but rather an ambiguous transition. The figure of Al Sharaa, emerged from armed Islamism and now at the head of the state, faces double pressure. It must maintain internal stability and respond to an international community demanding quick results. Its room for maneuver will depend on its ability to balance local interests, external expectations, and the patience of a population exhausted after more than a decade of war.