An ultranationalist president and a pro-European government: the difficult coexistence in Poland

BerlinUltranationalist Karol Nawrocki was sworn in this Wednesday as Poland's new president for the next five years, after defeating Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, a candidate close to Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, in the June elections. With Nawrocki's inauguration, Poland faces years of political deadlock, with a difficult coexistence between an ultraconservative and nationalist president and a liberal-centrist and pro-European prime minister.

The president, who presents himself as a defender of national sovereignty, promised in his inaugural address to fight "illegal immigration" and oppose Poland's eventual entry into the eurozone. The ultranationalist leader also announced that he will not appoint or promote judges who "undermine the legal order of the Republic of Poland" and that he will continue investing in the military. Regarding foreign policy, Nawrocki has said he will support the alliance with the United States.

Ultranationalist historian and former boxer, He succeeds Andrzej Duda, who has used his veto power to repeatedly torpedo Tusk's reformist and progressive agenda over the past 16 months. Both Duda and Nawrocki are supported by the Polish nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, which governed Poland from 2015 to 2023 and is now the main opposition party.

According to Polish analysts, Nawrocki is likely to be even more hostile to the government's liberal and pro-European domestic agenda than his predecessor. Nawrocki considers Tusk to have been "the worst prime minister since 1989," the year of the fall of the communist regime. "I will not allow Mr. Nawrocki, once he is sworn in as president, to politically sabotage the government," the prime minister warned last week. Tusk, in power since December 2023 and former president of the European People's Party and the Council of Europe, leads a fragile alliance of parties from the left and center-right. The prime minister believes he still has a clear mandate to govern, despite Nawrocki's victory in the presidential election and the unpopularity of his government.

Poland's new nationalist president and Tusk will most likely clash over domestic reforms, but they may find common ground in strengthening the military and in their opposition in Russia. However, Tusk's government will find it very difficult to undo the judicial reforms of his predecessor, the PiS, as he promised to do when he came to power. Tusk, who In June he won a vote of confidence in the Parliament, reshuffled his government a few days ago in anticipation of a tense relationship with Nawrocki. The next parliamentary elections are scheduled for the fall of 2027.

Trump admirer

Before entering politics, Nawrocki was director of the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN), a public body that documents and investigates Nazi and Soviet crimes committed in Poland. His presidential campaign was marred by past scandals: from an alleged real estate scam involving an elderly man to involvement in drug fights. hooligans when he was young, through to the mismanagement of the Institute or the hiring of prostitutes for clients of a hotel, something he has denied.

A newcomer to politics, the ultraconservative surprisingly won the presidential elections in June with 50.89% of the votes, thanks to the support of the PiS and the President of the United States, Donald Trump, whom he admiresTrzaskowski, the pro-European mayor of Warsaw, obtained 49.11% of the vote, despite being the clear favorite.

Nawrocki and the PiS presented the presidential elections as a referendum on Tusk's government. 59% of Poles disapprove of the government's work, and only 33% approve, according to a CBOS poll from early July. A possible victory for the governing coalition in the legislative elections in the fall of 2027 will not make Tusk's political life easier, because Nawrocki will remain in office until 2030 and would continue to veto his progressive agenda.