Amílcar Cabral's nightmare: what do coups tell us about the future of Africa?
The Guinean engineer Amílcar Cabral, one of Africa's most important anti-colonial leaders, confessed in his biography that as a child his mind was so steeped in colonialism that he felt Portuguese. Within a few years, he became one of the continent's most renowned revolutionaries: he led the independence movement of Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde against Portugal, and was assassinated a year before the definitive recognition of independence in 1974. His writings and speeches have become legendary. One of them stated that to convince peasants to join the guerrillas, people didn't need to hear grand theories, but rather the promise of a better life.
Just days ago, Guinea-Bissau experienced a coup d'état only hours before the election results were to be announced. Umaro Sissoco Embaló, president since 2020, has fled and in the last week has been seen in Senegal, Congo-Brazzaville, and Morocco. Members of the Guinea-Bissau diaspora suspect that Embaló maneuvered to remain in power, knowing that he was likely to lose the election.
Guinea-Bissau is today a cashew plantation whose cashews are sold unprocessed in India, and a narco-state where Latin American cocaine is temporarily held before reaching Europe. Two variables define the lives of most Guineans who live in the countryside, far removed from the profits of drug trafficking: the price of the cashews they export and the price of the rice they import. The mounting payments on the external debt have exacerbated tensions. Half of their gasoline and virtually all of their wine and beer are purchased from Portugal. One can't help but wonder what Amílcar Cabral would feel if he saw the country he envisioned today.
A continental wave
Since the global shutdown caused by COVID-19 in 2020, the African continent has experienced as many as eleven coups. Initially, they were concentrated in the Sahel region of West Africa, where the military governments of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger are attempting to confront jihadist insurgents; but the coup trend has spread to areas where there is no territorial conflict, but where there are appalling levels of inequality and a young population demanding change. Madagascar and Guinea-Bissau are part of the most recent wave, and they may not be the last. Some coup leaders arrive promising a radical break with the past; others, aiming to maintain the existing order discreetly.
Increasingly, Africans welcome the possibility of overthrowing civilian regimes they consider ineffective. The five-year period from 2024 to 2028 will test their patience: African countries, where many people lack access to basic services or food, will pay an average of $100 billion annually in debt service, half of it to banks and investment funds, primarily Western.
Many coup leaders are failing to deliver on their promises, but especially in the Sahel, they maintain popular support thanks to their criticism of the West. As journalist Faisal Ali recently said, referring to Burkinabe leader Ibrahim Traoré: "His appeal lies not in his numbers, but in his ability to articulate what many people are thinking, and the viral nature of his comments when he criticizes the West or the bourgeois elites across Africa." The anti-colonial revolution has returned to Africa; time will tell if this time it will be a farce.