The world prepares for the arrival of a super-Niño: how can it affect Catalonia?

BarcelonaThe world looks towards the Pacific with concern. Forecasts from major international climate agencies warn of the probable formation of what has popularly already been dubbed a super-Niño over the coming months in this area of the planet. An episode of the Niño phenomenon much more intense than usual, capable of shaking the global climate. Its consequences could range from extreme droughts to torrential rains in different parts of the planet, but above all due to a clear and general rise in temperatures.

Thousands of kilometers away, in Catalonia, the Balearic Islands, and the entire Mediterranean area, its evolution is also being closely monitored, as, although its effects would not be immediate, experts warn that in the medium and long term they could end up influencing precipitation patterns and temperatures in our region. And all this with the stamp of global warming and the climate crisis, which can influence the behavior of this phenomenon. Furthermore, as has happened before, we know that with more environmental and sea heat, rain episodes, although scarcer, can be more torrential and generate deeper droughts.

Forecasts indicate that it is practically assured –with a 90% probability– that Niño will develop in the coming months. And there is a 50% chance that this phenomenon will be strong or very strong, according to data from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provided by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (Meteocat) to the newspaper ARA.

“Precursors are being detected in the western Pacific Ocean indicating that a Niño is developing,” explains Vicent Altava, technician from the Applied Research and Modeling area of Meteocat. In fact, the Copernicus climate change service has confirmed that the global average ocean surface temperature - excluding the poles - was the second highest in April, only below the record of April 2024, when the last Niño occurred.

"Climate models are clearly pointing in the same direction and predict, with a high level of confidence, the establishment of an El Niño episode that will gain more strength in the coming months", explains in a statement Wilfran Moufouma Okia, head of climate prediction at the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). “It could be an intense episode”, he adds. According to the WMO's forecasts, the first effects of El Niño will begin to be felt in the Pacific region between May and July of this year. In any case, the peak of the phenomenon would arrive next winter, especially between December and January.

El Niño causes a warming of the waters of the equatorial Pacific, which if it is strong can be more than 1.5°C, but if, as some forecasts indicate, the phenomenon is very strong, the marine warming can reach more than 2°C, with all the consequences that this sudden thermal change can bring about worldwide. “El Niño is the most potent and powerful natural climate variability mechanism on a planetary scale”, states Altava.

Heat records and effects in Catalonia

El Niño has effects globally and, therefore, Catalonia will not be left out. The phenomenon usually causes a rise in temperature around the planet, and irregularity in rainfall, with droughts in usually humid areas, and torrential downpours in normally drier areas.

In our region, its effects arrive indirectly and much later, as we are literally on the other side of the world from the Niño's epicenter. According to Altava, its consequences take between 13 and 16 months to reach Catalonia from the start of the episode. Therefore, we will not notice them until next year, just when the phenomenon is in its final phase in the Pacific. "To reach us, the effects of Niño must cross a long journey of thousands of kilometers: the Pacific, the American continent, and the Atlantic Ocean," recalls the Meteocat expert.

That said, higher than normal temperatures are assured in Catalonia and around the world, and in the context of global warming, this suggests that temperatures never seen before could be reached. "It is clear that if Niño is strong or very strong, the coming months will break world temperature records; in Catalonia, we have already had extremely hot years with annual values of 2 °C above average, but this phenomenon could also facilitate new records being set," explains Altava.

But what will happen with precipitation? "Usually, Niño is a precursor to little rain and droughts in the western Mediterranean," warns Altava, who adds that the wet period we are experiencing and which has taken us out of the historic drought "should be ending and it would be time for a Niño, from a statistical point of view." According to the expert, Niño could cause the next autumns and springs – usually rainy seasons in our region – to be dry.

According to the expert, the latest precedents of Niño indicate that the areas that usually suffer most from the pluviometric deficit in Catalonia during these episodes are the eastern Pyrenees and sometimes the Guilleries, directly impacting the state of the reserves of the internal basins. The Iberian System too, which would affect the Ports area.

A year to prepare ourselves

Faced with these forecasts, several questions arise: are we prepared to live through such extreme phenomena? Have we learned from the last drought and the recent heat records? The Catalan Water Agency maintains the forecast that by 2030, 70% of drinking water will be guaranteed, mainly thanks to planned measures to boost regeneration and desalination.

However, it is also very important to apply strategies to mitigate the impact of high temperatures and extreme phenomena on people's well-being and health. The Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) calls for the promotion of more green spaces in cities.

“As indicated by the World Health Organization, each neighborhood should have 30% vegetation cover; and not only should green spaces be created, but the vegetation must be distributed to have entire routes protected from the sun's impact that guarantee active mobility for people without endangering their health”, assures Carlota Sáenz de Tejada, ISGlobal researcher.

A study led by this center concludes that more than 4% of deaths occurring in cities during the summer months are due to urban heat islands, and that a third of these deaths could be avoided if 30% tree cover were achieved in cities. Furthermore, this measure can reduce the temperature of urban environments by up to 1.3 °C, although according to Sáenz, this thermal decrease can occasionally reach up to 7 °C.

According to Sáenz, administrations must take into account that the species to be planted in cities must be resistant to heat and extreme phenomena, with a high capacity to absorb urban pollution and requiring little water maintenance.

She also states that it is necessary to promote climate shelters and opt for bioclimatic designs for housing. “Buildings should have more awnings, good thermal insulation, natural ventilation, and roofs and facades should be repainted in light colors to avoid overheating the interior”, she assures.

“These strategies will make air conditioning the last resort, as if we overuse it, we will further increase the outdoor temperature”, points out Sáenz, warning that high electrical demand for cooling can cause future outages and infrastructure problems.

Regarding schools, ISGlobal highlights that most were built in a different climatic context where heat was not an issue. The center proposes measures such as greening outdoor areas for more shade, installing ceiling fans and blinds, or, according to Sáenz, "considering schedule changes or holding classes outdoors" during intense heat.

For its part, sources from the Generalitat consulted by ARA explain that the Government remains "firm" in the roadmap of the Climate Change Adaptation Strategy 2021-2030 to implement "national" policies and decisions to adapt and "mitigate" the effects of the climate crisis.