The price of oil, Iran's main weapon

BarcelonaMujtaba Khamenei's first public statement as Iran's Supreme Leader, read by a female voice on state media, confirmed the worst fears for the global economy by reaffirming that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed to pressure Donald Trump and the United States. The price of oil has become the Iranian regime's main weapon in this trade war, and it seems prepared to use it to its fullest extent. In fact, immediately after Khamenei's remarks, the price of oil rose again above €100, although it subsequently fluctuated. Consumers worldwide are already feeling the effects of the trade war in their wallets, primarily through increased fuel prices, especially diesel. If the trade war drags on, the increased costs will be passed on throughout the supply chain, reaching the final product. This price increase is severely impacting Trump's electoral base in the United States, which voted for him largely on his promise to focus on lowering prices and not starting wars abroad. American farmers are seeing not only the price of diesel fuel for their tractors rise these days, but also the price of the fertilizers they need, much of which passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Their complaints are reaching Republican congressmen and senators, who are up for reelection in November and are pressuring the White House to end the intervention.

The problem is that Donald Trump will have a very difficult time declaring victory and justifying a withdrawal if the regime remains in Iran. Khamenei Jr.'s first message had a very clear objective: to convey that the theocratic regime still controls the country and is prepared to stand up to them. It is true that Khamenei appears wounded and that we haven't seen his face or heard his voice, but that doesn't mean the regime no longer exists. The new supreme leader has even warned the Gulf states that peace in the region will not be possible while there are US bases on their territories. All of this paints a picture of extreme uncertainty, because while it is true that Iran's military might may have been partially destroyed by the bombings, there is no sign that the regime is about to collapse; quite the contrary. Every day, in fact, Iran launches hundreds of rockets and missiles at the Gulf countries and Israel, and also attacks ships that dare to cross the strait.

In fact, Iranian leaders seem convinced that Trump will be unable to withstand the pressure of soaring oil prices and will have no choice but to withdraw sooner or later. The current danger is not only that the war will fail to achieve any of Washington's objectives, but that the Iranian regime will be strengthened and the situation will worsen for the population, who had hoped that this time the ayatollahs would fall and democracy could be established in Iran. This outcome would be disastrous for Iran and the entire Middle East, but it would also demonstrate to everyone just how catastrophic the Trump administration can be.