The survey by the Center for Opinion Studies (CEO) confirms what was already becoming apparent: the far-right wave seriously threatens Catalonia. Major international ideological currents always eventually arrive. The upward trend of Aliança Catalana and Vox is clear, and for the moment, nothing seems to be stopping it. The dual nature of this phenomenon here (the pro-independence and pro-Spanish sides) cannot disguise its strength: if elections were held now, the far-right vote would garner 34 seats in the Catalan Parliament, alongside the PSC as the leading party. Naturally, in practice, in terms of hypothetical governance, Aliança and Vox could not form a coalition, but they do add up on specific policies, especially their xenophobic and anti-immigrant stance. Their discourse is increasingly shaping the political agenda and debates, straining social cohesion and promising false shortcuts to the major everyday problems people face: housing, cost of living, language, security, bureaucracy, but also the climate crisis and global instability.
The supposed anti-establishment rhetoric of Alianza and Vox—which in reality doesn't address the root causes of political disaffection or inequality, but rather seeks scapegoats among the most vulnerable—is penetrating broad social strata. Traditional parties, with questionable leadership and damaged credibility, are struggling to find a way to combat this anti-political demagoguery. This is especially relevant within the pro-independence movement, both in ERC and Junts, but particularly in Puigdemont's party, which is losing its traditional, mainstream voter base thanks to Sílvia Orriols's party. The disillusionment of the pro-independence voter seems to have found in Alianza a path of punishment for the former leaders of the independence movement and a return to a more emotionally charged identity-based fervor.
Should the rise of these two parties on the far right of the Catalan parliamentary spectrum be confirmed, the country's governability would be seriously compromised. It is likely that no coalition would be possible: neither the left (they are on the verge of not reaching 68 seats), nor the center-right (a weakened Junts would hardly be willing to sacrifice itself to make an Isla minority government possible), nor the pro-independence parties (even if they had enough seats, Ali and Niña) would not form a coalition with ERC and CUP. This could lead to new elections and, eventually, to a political deadlock. Therefore, the practical outlook is as worrying as the ideological one.
We are heading into uncharted territory. The fact that we are experiencing the same thing as other countries is no consolation. It is the realization of a collective failure that harms everyone. Ungovernability ultimately translates into people's lives: budgets are not approved, nor are major public projects launched. Political paralysis always has concrete, damaging effects on social services (healthcare, education, welfare), on support for businesses, and, overall, on economic confidence. It also, of course, further discredits the already much-criticized democratic system, which in turn only fuels ultra-conservative extremism and its siren songs of disruption. If we enter this cycle, it will be very difficult to break free.
