The bittersweet balance of the first year of amnesty

This Friday marked one year since the approval of the amnesty law in the Congress of Deputies, a bittersweet anniversary because while many people have already benefited from it—45% of those who have requested it, according to Òmnium data—there are also many requests that have not been granted. Among them are the police officers accused of bodily harm in connection with the 1-O referendum, and among the latter are the main political leaders of the process. The law is being debated in the Constitutional Court. Be that as it may, the law is making progress, but it is true that from a political standpoint, it will not have achieved its objective until former president Carles Puigdemont can freely return to Catalonia. A progressive majority should have this endorsement, but this will not mean its immediate application, since the Supreme Court considers that the law is not applicable to cases of embezzlement. A second legal battle will then open, which could also have a European scope if the Supreme Court submits a preliminary ruling to the CJEU. The amnesty, which is currently being implemented by its pro-independence partners, is now bogged down and without a clear timeline. It's possible that the amnesty won't be implemented until the end of the mandate, with the real danger that the legislature will end early and the new right-wing government will seek a way to torpedo it.

The case of the amnesty is paradigmatic for explaining the difference between government and state. You can reach an agreement with a government, but if the state is against it, it has multiple levers to boycott it. That's why the current confrontation between the Sánchez government and certain structures of the deep state is especially interesting, as well as historically novel. The outcome of the battle over the amnesty will not only be decisive for the future of the legislature, but will also affect Spanish politics for decades to come.

The People's Party (PP) once decided to torpedo a Statute approved by a majority of Catalans as part of its strategy to overthrow Zapatero. And with that, it lit the fuse for the Process. Now it's doing the same with the amnesty and Sánchez, although Spanish public opinion, even conservative public opinion, seems to have turned the page and is more concerned with other things. But the price the PP pays is becoming increasingly isolated, living with its back to Catalonia, and being a prisoner of its only possible partner: Vox.