Europe must take the Russian threat seriously

BarcelonaRussia is increasing pressure on Eastern European countries with a mix of hybrid warfare and airspace violations as part of its military strategy to weaken aid from NATO and EU partners to Ukraine. The reality is that, almost five years after the invasion, the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, knows that his only chance of winning the war is to cut off this aid. How? By deepening European divisions, intimidating the population of border countries, and, above all, placing his far-right pawns at the head of as many European countries as possible. To achieve all these objectives, he is deploying a whole series of actions of which we have had quite a few examples in recent days.

This Tuesday, NATO fighter jets shot down a drone in Lithuanian airspace that had been launched from Belarus. The unmanned aerial vehicle triggered alarms in the capital, Vilnius, and Poland activated its air forces as a preventive measure after recovering what it believes to be a Russian drone in the Baltic. Previously, off the coast of Denmark, a Russian ship had fired flares at a Danish military helicopter; in the Netherlands, a sabotage had caused railway disruptions; and in Ukraine—just two kilometers from the border with Poland—Moscow launched a missile on Sunday at a passenger train.

The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said this Tuesday that all these episodes are part of a "broader pattern of Russian aggression and provocation against Europe," and that, therefore, it must be taken very seriously. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has also warned that NATO countries must prepare for an escalation in Moscow's provocations. Faced with this scenario, the head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, has presented a five-point plan to address it in which, among other measures, it is requested to insist on economic sanctions against Russia, limit visas for citizens of that country, and use AI tools to counter Russian disinformation in the European information space. "Putin is a textbook bully," stated Kallas, who believes the Russian president's goal is to paralyze and terrify the population.

Kallas's plan is well-intentioned, but it may fall short if we take into account the scope of the Russian threat and the objectives behind this type of low-intensity war being waged in the east of the EU. Sanctions on the Russian economy, although they have had an undeniable impact, are not working as expected. And investment must be increased to protect the continent against the possibility of cyberattacks, mass espionage, or other methods of hybrid warfare. Putin will not stop easily, especially when he knows that Trump is desperately seeking to reconcile with Moscow. Only a credible deterrent policy and the commitment that Ukraine will not be left to its fate can end up making the invasion have a boomerang effect against Putin.