Defeat or humiliation: Trump's blackmail of Zelensky
Either lose dignity or lose their most powerful ally. The dilemma Volodymyr Zelensky has posed to his fellow citizens is grave. Trump has underscored it with statements to the press in which he gives the Ukrainian leader a week to accept the terms of his peace plan—or so they call it—threatening to withdraw logistical and espionage support and halt further arms shipments if he refuses. Ukraine, therefore, seems to be approaching the end of its agony, and an undesirable outcome looms on the horizon. The United States and Russia have been secretly negotiating their plan, disregarding both Ukraine and Europe, which have been humiliatingly slighted.
What does the peace plan say? Well, that Russia keeps all the territory it conquered in Donbas, plus the part of this strategic region, historically coveted by Putin, that is still in Ukrainian hands and would become a demilitarized zone belonging to the Russian Federation. This means all of Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as the parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia currently held by the Russian army—a vast area that allows Russia unimpeded access to both the Black Sea and Crimea, which would obviously also become Russian. It's worth remembering that territorial cession was a red line for Ukraine, which has not recognized even the annexation of Crimea. And that Russia intended to keep practically the entire Ukrainian coastline, if not the whole country. Furthermore, it stipulates that Ukraine would reduce its army—from the current 800,000 soldiers to 600,000, although Russia's initial demand was for a much more radical reduction—all war crimes would be pardoned, and Russia would be allowed to rejoin all international bodies. As if nothing had happened.
Although Moscow considers that too many concessions are being made, the truth is that Trump has practically bought everything that Russian President Vladimir Putin wanted. And, in return, as the businessman he is, certain clauses ensure that the United States will be the main agent in the reconstruction efforts. That is to say, they will be the ones who profit and possibly the ones who end up with the Ukrainian rare earth elements and other necessary raw materials. It is no wonder that Putin has come out and said that he generally approves of the plan, while Zelensky has given a dramatic speech to the nation warning that the moment is serious and that he will try to negotiate. in extremis to improve conditions with the help, he says, of European countries.
Seeing what has happened in Gaza, however, it doesn't seem like there's much that can be done. Trump understands the world in terms of imperial domination, and for some time now all his gestures—we recall the humiliation of Zelensky's first meeting at the White House—have been aimed at demanding Ukraine's surrender to appease his Russian "friend." We'll see what happens this week. What moves can the European Union and Zelensky himself make to avoid this peace plan that entails a loss of territory and sovereignty? Ukraine cannot afford to lose the United States as an ally, which would lead to its defeat sooner rather than later, and internal corruption and the weariness of years of war also weigh heavily, but accepting this plan is a humiliation that will be hard to swallow. Between defeat and indignity, the decision is difficult.
