All waiting for peace or at least a 'no war'

If there are no last-minute changes, the negotiators of the United States and Iran will meet again in Islamabad to resume peace talks, before the ceasefire expires on Tuesday night to Wednesday. The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, but the ten-day truce has given some breathing room to all parties, and also to the markets. Despite the rhetoric and continued threats from Donald Trump and his team to further destroy Iran, the fact is that there is some consensus among analysts that it is in the best interest of all parties, including the United States, to stop a conflict that is causing an economic crisis of global proportions.

The Gulf countries and also their Asian allies have been greatly harmed. The former, because Iran's retaliatory attacks have directly targeted them, thus destroying their image as a haven of peace and security for the super-rich of the planet in one fell swoop. The latter, because after the blow of tariffs they have now received the price increase of a fuel that basically comes to them from the strait now blocked by the war. But even though these two areas have been harmed, the conflict is affecting the whole world and, even if it ended tomorrow, the economic consequences will be serious anyway. The longer it lasts, however, the worse it will be, and like dominoes it can create a whole series of crises that will be not only energy-related, but also food-related and general supply-related for companies and consumers.

This, then, is what is at stake in Islamabad, and despite the international pressure on both sides to reach an agreement, the truth is that it is difficult to foresee a result. Above all, due to Trump's unpredictability, who does not heed logic and has dismantled his country's entire traditional diplomatic and even military strategy. However, reaching this point shows that he has not succeeded in his initial objectives. It could be said that there is a technical draw in which the air superiority of the United States and Israel has managed to destroy a large part of the country, but it has not been able to break either the regime or its response capacity. The Revolutionary Guard has more power than ever, the regime remains, repression against its beleaguered population may have increased even further, and uranium still remains in Iran. Furthermore, the blockade of the strait has become its main weapon and has given it a power that the world was not sufficiently aware of until now.

The negotiations in Pakistan have as their main objective to stop the escalation, reopen the strait, and make it seem like a long-term agreement is being worked on. It is difficult to expect a clear agreement that would provide security to the area, which would be desirable. But this non-war would already be a triumph from which to move forward towards a return to a certain normality. On the other hand, resuming open hostilities would be entering into a spiral of war that, directly or indirectly, could drag half the world into an absurd and dramatic conflict.