When a single apple is worth one euro and a half: a headache for Americans... and for Trump

Washington / BarcelonaIn the summer, when it was already clear that the Iran war would be a long one, at the register of a fairly well-known coffee shop chain in Washington, there was a discreet sign framed in black. "A notice to our customers: from time to time, we must adjust our prices to reflect the rising cost of ingredients and operations." In the pastry and cake display case, it was easy to spot the slight increase. The butter cookies with chocolate, which used to cost 90 cents each, now cost a dollar.

This scene of everyday life in the USA took place in July, and since then, prices haven't exactly calmed down. At gas stations in the capital, the number 4 has settled in as the new tenant on the price display. The cents, a little higher or lower, mean that gasoline is now over four dollars a gallon (about 90 euro cents per liter). An image that, in a country accustomed for decades to very cheap fuel, makes most citizens sigh every time they have to fill up their car tank, even in Washington, where the public transport system is quite solvent. In other cities and areas of the country—for example, Los Angeles or the vast majority of states in the south, the center, and the west—one must drive even to go get a coffee.

With the unrest over gasoline, it has only been raining on wet ground, because even under the Joe Biden administration, Americans were grumbling about the grocery basket. Now, with Donald Trump, they are suffering for both things: gasoline and food. The Republican managed to return to the White House, in large part, thanks to his promise to lower the cost of living. And the citizens do not believe he is delivering.

Food tightens the belt

Although it has now turned against him and is causing him headaches ahead of next month's legislative elections, two years ago Trump focused his reelection campaign on the rising cost of living during Biden's presidency. It was logical for Trump to leverage this factor to wear down the Democratic president, who suffered two different supply shocks between 2021 and 2022: the reactivation of the economy after COVID caused supply problems in many industries, which inflated prices globally, and a year later, the rise in energy costs due to the war in Ukraine was added to this.

From the time Biden entered the White House in January 2021 until he left it in the same month of 2024, the prices of consumer goods and services in the US skyrocketed by 20.9%, according to calculations by this newspaper based on official inflation data from the US government's Bureau of Labor Statistics. This means a substantial reduction in the purchasing power of families, which is felt more the lower a household's income is. If a family had monthly expenses of 1,000 dollars on food, water, electricity, clothing, gasoline, and other consumer goods, four years later exactly the same products cost 1,209.

With the normalization of the post-COVID economy and the adjustment of energy markets to the sanctions against Moscow, prices began to normalize in 2024 and last year, althoughthey are still growing now at a higher rate than before the pandemic. This fact initially favored Trump, although the war against Iran once again sent energy prices soaring worldwide and, by extension, also in the United States.

On a small scale, the current inflationary effect has been particularly noticeable in fresh produce and meat. At the supermarket chain Trader Joe's—one of the most popular in the country—the same apples that in April 2025 cost 1.49 dollars each, now cost 1.69 (1.47 euros), a price that would scare any European: a single apple in the US costs almost the same as a kilo of apples in a Catalan supermarket. The same goes for tomatoes: those of the Campari variety, which cost 3.49 dollars per pound (one pound is 454 grams), now cost 3.79 dollars.

The product that has shown itself to be most sensitive to inflation is ground beef. In September, a pound of ground beef cost about $6.89 on average, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. An increase of about 57 cents compared to what it already cost in October 2025, when families already considered that $6.32 per pound was too much.

The difference explained in cents does not seem very large, but if one takes into account that, on average, the Department of Agriculture calculates that in the USA about 30.4 kilograms (67 pounds) of beef per year per person are consumed, the balance is different. Furthermore, ground beef is the cheapest and most accessible way for families to consume it, which is why it is a staple food that is found in practically every refrigerator in the country.

The impact of gasoline

The current inflationary episode is nothing new in the modern history of the United States. In fact, the country ended World War II in 1945 with high price growth due to the strong economic activity derived from the war effort. It must be understood that, at the end of the conflict, 40% of economic activity in the US was solely dedicated to the production of weaponry and war material or the sustenance of the armed forces.

Since then, one can speak of up to six more episodes of high price growth, all related to wars or energy: the outbreak of the Korean War in 1951; the Vietnam War; the two oil crises in 1973 (Yom Kippur War) and 1979 (Iran-Iraq War); the Gulf War due to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. With the American and Israeli attacks on Iran, a final episode occurs, although inflation has not yet reached the levels of the previous ones.

This time, one of the elements that most affects consumers' pockets is once again the price of fuel, which since the outbreak of the conflict in the Persian Gulf and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in February has skyrocketed, following the rise in the cost of oil, which has surpassed the 100 dollars per barrel barrier. In the case of the United States, however, the impact of rising gasoline prices on family finances is greater than in Europe for several reasons.

The first is that the public transport network in Europe is larger and, therefore, offers more alternatives to the private car, especially in large cities. This makes the demand for diesel and gasoline smaller.

The second is that no country in the European Union is an oil exporter (on the continent, only Norway and the United Kingdom, the two non-EU countries, are producers), which is why fuel is more expensive there. High prices already discourage car use. Furthermore, heavy fuel taxes drive up prices even further in the EU. If Europeans are surprised by the cost of fruit in the US, Americans are horrified when they see the gas station price signs in Europe.

Finally, the emergence of the electric vehicle is further reducing demand in Europe, where this year more than 23% of cars sold are electric (due to the entry of Chinese brands), while in the US this figure falls to 6%, according to the automotive consultancy Motor Intelligence. This is based on the principle that European internal combustion engine vehicles are smaller on average and EU regulations require the production of more efficient cars.

All these elements mean that the rise in fuel prices has a greater effect on the cost of living for US families, even if it is a relatively limited increase. And, despite still being well below European prices, today gasoline and diesel in the US are at historical highs.

Another element to keep in mind is that rising energy costs can cause what economists call second-round effects. Since energy prices are higher for a long time, companies initially absorb the extra cost, but a few months later they have to end up passing it on to the final price paid by consumers. This effect occurred in 2023 after the energy shock of 2022, but currently, with the war in Iran entering its eighth month, it has not yet fully unfolded: between December and August, prices grew by 2.5% on average in the USA, a high figure but one that does not reflect the second-round phenomenon. It remains to be seen if it ends up happening in the coming months and how it would affect both Trump's policies and, above all, the day-to-day life of the citizens of the world's leading economy.