What is at stake for Catalonia in the new trade clash between Spain and the US?

MadridAfter the new Clash between the Spanish government and Donald Trump Because of the State's stance on the war in Iran, which led to the US threat to sever trade relations, Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo was quick to send a message of "reassurance," especially to businesses. He even advocated for continuing to "move forward" in integrating trade relations with the United States. In fact, as the ARA explained a few days agoThe Spanish government has just opened two new economic and commercial offices in the country. It has also stated that "crossing interests" are at stake. But what are they?

The trade relationship between the United States and Spain, as well as with Catalonia, has two pillars: exports and imports of goods and services, and the much more significant aspect of investment.

Exports and Imports

In terms of sales and purchases, the North American market is not among the most significant compared to other regions. For example, the United States accounts for only 4.3% of Spanish exports. In monetary terms, in 2025, Spanish sales reached €16.716 billion, 8% less than in 2024. This decline resulted from the tariff policies and uncertainty generated by the new administration of Donald Trump. Imports of goods and services from the US totaled €30.174 billion, a 7% increase, resulting in a trade deficit of €13.458 billion.

However, it is also true that exports to the US are heavily influenced by regional distribution, so the shock does not affect all regions equally. Catalonia is, in fact, one of the most sensitive areas in the United States, although it is its fifth largest market and lags far behind Germany or France. Specifically, 25.2% of Spain's exports to the United States in 2025 were Catalan (€4.205 billion), and 17.5% of US imports to Spain are also carried out by Catalan companies (€5.034 billion), according to data from Acción consulted by ARA. Furthermore, there are specific products that are highly dependent on the US market. In the case of Catalonia, these are primarily pharmaceuticals, machinery, and perfumes and cosmetics, but also food products such as wine. When looking at Spain as a whole, olive oil is added to the list.

Regarding imports, the bulk is concentrated in energy products. In this respect, the United States was Spain's second-largest supplier of natural gas, second only to Algeria: between January and December 2025, 30% of the gas that arrived in Spain (111,660 GWh) came from the US in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG). But not all of it is for domestic consumption; Spain then re-exports to other countries, to the point that it has become a gateway for US natural gas for other European partners. However, this represents almost double the amount of natural gas from the US received in 2024 (56,435 GWh from January to December). This is one of Spain's weaknesses, but also Europe's.

The weight of investment

The other key element of the trade relationship – if not the most important – is investment. The United States is the top destination for Spanish investment, with an investment stock of over €91 billion projected for 2025. It is also the leading investor in Spain (last year, the stock was €117.127 billion). "Both countries need each other," stated Marta Blanco, president of CEOE International, in a conversation with ARA.

US regulations and the investment boom fueled by the surge in public tenders in strategic sectors such as infrastructure and energy have driven large listed companies like Banco Santander, Iberdrola, Ferrovial, and ACS to continue growing in the US market, where they have found an ally in Donald Trump. The Spanish company sees in theAmerica firstTrump's ambitions (to have his own industry in artificial intelligence or pharmaceuticals) represent a business opportunity.

What can Trump do?

With the threat already issued, one path Trump could take is to continue tightening tariffs. However, applying tariffs only to Spain runs into a "barrier," in the words of Omar Rachedi, professor of economics and researcher at EsadeGeo, which is the principle of non-discrimination governed by the World Trade Organization (WTO). This rule states that lower tariffs cannot be applied to a member country if the product it sells is similar to that of other countries—in fact, the tariff is applied to the product itself. Furthermore, a legal justification is required, such as antidumping law. The other path is the application of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which would allow Donald Trump, after declaring an "unusual and extraordinary external threat," to restrict or block economic transactions with a country, in this case, Spain. This could range from freezing assets under US jurisdiction to prohibiting payments or imposing sanctions, among other retaliatory measures. "It would be extraordinary to do so in Spain because of the legal and political framework that would justify such an emergency involving an ally," says Rachedi.

However, attacking only in Spain is "difficult to sustain," according to the researcher, because the regulatory core of many areas is in Brussels. This view is shared by UOC professor Carlos Méndez: "Spanish trade policy is European competition, [...] all of this would lead to a transatlantic trade war," Méndez told ACN.

Awaiting Trump's moves, some Spanish companies with strong interests in the US have not hesitated to react: "I am sure that relations will soon be excellent again," said Ana Botín, president of Banco Santander, in an interview with Bloomberg. The financial institution not only has a large part of its business in the United States, but has also just reached an agreement to buy an American bank. Meanwhile, the Spanish cooperative Dcoop, the world's leading olive oil producer and heavily invested in the country, has decided to suspend its purchase of 100% of the American company Pompeyan, of which it already controls 50%.

In fact, Méndez believes that Washington's hostility could indeed destabilize investments, including those from the United States in Spain. He cites as examples the bilateral agreement between Boeing and Vueling, here in Catalonia, which involves the massive purchase of Boeing 737 aircraft, and the recent multi-million dollar investment by Amazon announced at MWC.

Fiscal measures

However, the Spanish government has already opened the door to adopting measures to address the economic shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East, particularly the pressure on oil and gas prices, as well as Trump's threat to cut off trade with Spain. "We did it with Ukraine. We put an energy shield on the table and took action on the cost of living with measures affecting VAT on food. If necessary, we will do it again," said Cuerpo. The Minister of Labor, Yolanda Díaz, will meet this Thursday with unions and employers' associations to discuss the matter.