Trump's tariffs hit the United States harder, according to the World Bank.

BarcelonaDonald Trump's trade war is beginning to claim its first victims. Faced with the US administration's threat to impose massive tariffs, the World Bank has lowered its global growth forecasts for 2025, especially in the United States, which is one of the countries most affected by its own trade tariffs.

In a report published Tuesday, the financial institution placed the expected growth of the global economy at 2.3%, four-tenths less than what it presented in January. The new figures place economic growth at the lowest in the last seventeen years, since the economic crisis of 2008. In fact, the escalation of trade tensions has reduced growth forecasts in almost 70% of the world's countries.

The United States is the worst hit in this new panorama of global uncertainty, with a reduction of nine-tenths of a percentage point in its forecasts this year, which places expected annual growth at 1.4%. For next year, growth is expected to be 1.6%, a reduction of four-tenths of a percentage point compared to January's forecasts.

The same is not true for its main rival. The Washington-based institution has maintained its forecasts for China, with a 4.5% increase in 2025. This stability is explained by the increase in exports that the Asian giant registered before Trump's tariffs came into effect in April. For the 2026 fiscal year, growth is expected to be 4%. This week, representatives from the United States and China are meeting in London to try to reduce trade tensions, a rapprochement that would mitigate uncertainty and strengthen business and consumer confidence, according to the World Bank.

Less growth also in Europe

Regarding the eurozone, the World Bank has cut its growth forecast for 2025 by three-tenths to 0.7%, and by four-tenths for next year, placing it at 0.8%. "Deep integration into global value chains leaves the region highly exposed to adverse changes in trade policy," the report notes.

In this regard, the institution says that this new scenario will curb exports and investment in Europe, which will worsen one of its main concerns: the loss of competitiveness. It believes that increased fiscal spending on defense and infrastructure will not be able to reverse the situation, but the increase in public spending by Germany, Europe's largest economy, is expected to have a driving effect. The World Bank also points to the possible reorientation of Chinese exports to the European Union.

Despite this economic slowdown, the World Bank does not foresee a global recession. However, it is noteworthy that, if the expectations for 2025 and 2026 hold, average global growth in the first seven years of the decade will be the slowest since the 1960s. In this international context, the poorest economies will suffer the most, as the decline in activity will compound the worsening balance of payments.