Trump's tariffs could affect €22.7 billion of Spanish exports

BarcelonaThe tariffs imposed by the United States government on products manufactured in European Union countries could have a negative impact on Spanish exports worth €15.1 billion, although if the indirect impact were added, the figure could rise to €22.7 billion, as explained by the Minister of the Corps this Monday in an appearance before the Congress of Deputies.

Specifically, these €15.1 billion correspond to 83% of all sales in the US market by Spanish companies. Despite the high figure, Spain's exposure in the United States is lower than that of other European Union countries, especially the continent's largest economy, Germany, but also others such as Italy. Cuerpo explained that if US President Donald Trump finally pushes through the 30% tariff it has threatened the community bloc with, the volume of EU exports affected would be €380 billion.

However, although Spain as a whole is not one of the states where tariffs would be the worst affected, the minister noted that there are business sectors with a strong exposure to the US market where an increase in trade tariffs would have a very negative effect. An example is olive oil: Spanish producers sold more than €1 billion in the United States last year. "It's a high volume, the largest in terms of exports," said Cuerpo in his appearance.

As for Catalonia, it also has relatively little exposure to the US economy. Despite being the world's leading economic power, in 2024 it was the sixth largest foreign market for Catalan companies, with sales worth €4.351 billion, 4.3% of the total, according to data from Acció, the foreign trade agency of the Generalitat (Catalan government).

Bet on negotiation

On July 12, Trump threatened a 30% tariff on European exports to the US, but announced a waiver period until August 1, during which it would not yet be applied, allowing negotiations with the European Commission.

Like other European leaders in recent weeks, Cuerpo has advocated keeping dialogue open with the US administration until the last minute in order to reach an agreement that avoids or at least minimizes the potential tariffs announced by Trump two weeks ago. European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic has met repeatedly for months with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, but so far they have not been able to close an agreement, despite messages of optimism from Brussels.

"We must prepare for a no-deal scenario," Cuerpo stated, adding that the EU cannot be "naive" in the face of threats of more tariffs from Washington. In this regard, it has opted to expand the EU's internal market while simultaneously promoting new trade agreements with other partners, as was recently done with the trade agreement signed with the Mercosur countries.

The ministry estimates that the trade conflict with the US could shave a tenth of a percentage point off Spain's gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that measures the size of an economy) growth by 2025, according to Cuerpo. Regarding this issue, the Spanish government's economy minister lamented the climate of "uncertainty" caused by Trump's back-and-forth with his trading partners on tariffs, which has led the IMF to cut its growth forecasts.