Tourism growth slows after post-pandemic euphoria

BarcelonaThe pandemic had a direct impact on tourism, which reduced its activity to zero, but after the crisis, it grew to levels never seen before in Spain. For years, companies in the sector, such as hotels and airlines, have been contributing increasingly to the state's GDP. Although the trend continues, the tailwind appears to be weakening, with the new reality in the United States as the main threat.

This year, the tourism sector in Spain will grow 2.7%, according to a report published Wednesday by CaixaBank Research. It will continue to outpace the economy as a whole, with a forecast of 2.4% for 2025, but will fall far short of the figures from previous years, when tourism GDP reached growth of, for example, more than 60%, as in 2022.

This increase will continue until 2023 and up to 6% in 2024. To explain this moderation, CaixaBank Research economist David César Heymann points to factors such as the fact that tourism service prices are being contained after very inflated years, as well as the economic slowdown in European countries, Spain's main markets. The decline in tourism is also impacting a sector that is highly dependent on tourism, such as the restaurant industry, where it is also being felt. According to the financial institution, together with Oriol Aspachs, head of Spanish economic studies, 30% of Spanish locals have another dependence on tourism spending.

With an international clientele accounting for two-thirds of all spending, the sector is heavily influenced by the performance of the economies of the main issuing countries. Therefore, the fact that American families are less clear about their future since the return of Donald Trump is already having an impact. After years of strong growth, in which tourism from the United States represented almost 5% of arrivals, it is now beginning to slow down.

Since the fall of last year, but especially since this January with Trump's inauguration, the economic uncertainty facing American households is causing them to cut back wherever they can, and the departure of vacations abroad is one of those affected. This is reflected in the evolution of their tourism spending in Spain. While it grew by 23% in the first eight months of 2024, this increase dropped to 5.6% between September of last year and April of 2025. The appreciation of the euro against the dollar and the slowdown of the economy are also expected to affect the decision to travel or not.

For the entity, this new reality for the American client could reduce tourism GDP growth by up to 1% in 2025. Although this decline is not exclusive to Spain and also affects neighboring countries such as Italy, it is expected to have a greater impact on a local scale due to the high growth that had been recorded recently.

This decline in American tourists is being most noticeable in rural destinations, but it is also beginning to be detected in the Catalan capital. According to Turisme de Barcelona, ​​​​hotel reservations made from the United States have registered a significantly lower level in the third quarter of this year compared to the same period in 2024.

Forecasts

The tourism sector's moderation in this fiscal year could improve by 2026 if the eurozone economies improve, pending the recovery of key markets such as Germany, France, and Italy. CaixaBank's research department estimates that Spanish tourism GDP growth will reach 3.2% next year. However, everything is in the hands of a growing geopolitical uncertainty, both due to the ongoing wars and the possible future imposition of tariffs by the Republican administration.