The World Bank sees the global economy as more "resilient" despite uncertainty

BarcelonaThe global economy is proving to be "more resilient than anticipated," despite persistent trade tensions and political uncertainty, according to the World Bank, which has revised its growth forecasts upward for this year and next to 2.6% and 2.7%, respectively, after substantially improving its forecast for the current year. The organization's new projections, while implying a slight slowdown this year compared to the 2.7% growth rate projected for 2025, also represent a two-tenths of a percentage point improvement compared to the June forecast for 2026. Furthermore, the forecast for 2020-2022...

Specifically, the international institution has substantially revised its forecasts for the United States upwards and now anticipates an expansion of 2.2% in 2026, compared to the previous 1.6%, while maintaining its forecast for 2027 at 1.9%. In the case of the eurozone, the improvement this year is one-tenth of a percentage point higher than projected in June, and two-tenths of a percentage point higher for next year, to 1.2%. In both cases, the World Bank's estimated growth for 2025 is seven-tenths of a percentage point higher than the institution's previous projection, with an expansion of 1.4% for the eurozone and 2.1% for the US.

For China, the entity has improved its forecast for this year by four tenths of a percentage point, to 4.4%, and by three tenths of a percentage point for 2027, to 4.3%, while maintaining its forecast for India at 6.5% in 2026 and 6.6% in 2027.

Global "Resilience"

While growth in 2025 was boosted by increased trade in anticipation of tariffs, with rapid adjustments in global supply chains, the World Bank expects these stimuli to fade in 2026 as trade and domestic demand moderate, although it highlights the improvement in global financial conditions and fiscal expansion. "Resilience reflects better-than-expected growth, particularly in the United States, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of the upward revision to the 2026 forecast," notes the institution headed by Ajay Banga.